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August 11, 2021
STOCKS – AMZN, ROKU, MRNA, WFC
MACRO – SPY, QQQ
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- RTM – Yields, Amazon, Moderna All Lower
- RTM- Will Inflation Be Hot Enough,
- RTM – A Stronger Dollar Will Weigh On Energy And Materials
- RTM Tactical Update – Inflation May Miss Expectations But The Fed Will Still Taper
- RTM- Strong Job Report Triggers A Rotation
- RTM – Holding Steady Into The BLS Report
Stocks were mixed again, with the S&P 500 up around 20 bps and the Qs down around 20 bps. Meanwhile, yields moved lower following the in-line CPI report. The S&P 500 has revealed very little to us in recent days, and it has become an increasingly difficult index to forecast because of the rotation that seems just to move back and forth, keeping it from declining.
The trend line from the other day broke, and we managed to re-test that trend line early this morning, which failed to produce a rally. Still, we have yet to get the big move lower in the S&P 500. Momentum indicators have really flattened out, making it push in terms of when or if a breakdown ever occurs. We could end up consolidating sideways. But for now, I will patiently stand by my call for a push lower to 4430 and the lower trend line.
Nasdaq (QQQ)
The Qs have been a little bit more decisive, and that is because it’s more technology and growth-oriented than the more balanced S&P 500. Again, with the Qs, it is at 2 essential Elliot Wave and Fibonacci levels at play here, indicating this is ideal for a peak and the big reversal lower. The uptrend off the May lows is now broke, and both wave “C” appear to be complete.
Amazon (AMZN)
Amazon fell below a big price today, when it broke its post-earnings lows falling below $3,300. Follow through tomorrow will be a negative indication and will likely lead to the stock falling further, as this will bring turn the dip buyers into sellers. Meanwhile, anyone sitting on the sidelines waiting to see what was going to happen, will get into motions sending the shares back to $3,200, if not lower over time.
Wells (WFC)
Wells Fargo needs to climb just a little bit higher to close the gap from February 2020. It probably does it too, to come this far and not do it would be a big surprise.
Roku (ROKU)
It is starting to look like a double-top pattern is forming in Roku. The stock has been in free-fall since reporting results, why shouldn’t. The growth outlook for this stock does not justify the valuation the market gave it. Becuase a company has a strong future doesn’t mean the stock will have the same future. Markets can pull expectations forward, and unfortunately, that is exactly what has happened here.
Moderna (MRNA)
Moderna fell as largely expected. The gamma squeezed popped as most eventually do. For now, it is finding some support around $370. How long it acts as support is anyone’s guess, but $350 seems more ideal.
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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