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The post-election market rally unraveled quickly this week as key support levels broke down and volatility mechanics shifted.

In this video, we break down why the initial post-election surge was largely driven by an aggressive volatility crush rather than genuine market strength. With implied volatility now exhausted and hedges unwound, underlying weakness—especially across the semiconductor sector (SMH) and major tech names—is coming to the surface.

We also look at the mechanical forces driving this shift, including rising implied and realized correlations, the unwinding of the dispersion trade, and elevated put skew across top S&P 500 components. Finally, we review critical technical levels to watch on the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and SMH heading into key inflation data (CPI & PPI).

Key Topics Covered:

Why the post-election bounce failed to hold
VIX 1-day behavior and the limits of the volatility crush
Breakdown in the semiconductor sector (SMH) vs. the broader market
Dispersion unwinds and rising market correlations
Bearish shifts in options skew and implied volatility percentiles
Key technical levels on the S&P 500 (7300/7100) and Nasdaq
Upcoming macro event risks: CPI & PPI
Chapters: (Add your timestamps here once finalized)

0:00 - Post-Election Market Recap
0:36 - VIX 1-Day & The Rule Of 16
1:36 - The Volatility Crush & Thursday Reversal
2:20 - Semiconductor (SMH) Divergence
3:00 - Dispersion Trade & S&P Lift
4:35 - Why The AI Trade Breakdown Matters
5:46 - Friday Jobs Report & Volatility Limits
7:10 - Implied Correlations & Seasonality Shifts
8:38 - Realized Correlations Spike
9:10 - Options Skew & Bearish Positioning
10:22 - Upcoming CPI & PPI Event Risks
10:56 - Key Support Levels (S&P 500, Nasdaq, SMH)
11:50 - Market Mechanics & Unwind Summary


This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

189 21

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0:00 – S&P 500 & NASDAQ Technical Levels
1:00 – Sector Rotation: RSP vs. SPY & Tech Underperformance
3:09 – Global Yields & European Credit Spreads Widening
4:22 – CTA Flows & Global Bond Dynamics (UK Budget & BOJ)
6:48 – US Treasury Yield Outlook (10-Yr & 30-Yr)
7:43 – Crude Oil Breakout (Brent & WTI)
8:52 – US Dollar Setup & Impact on Precious Metals
10:44 – Treasury Issuance & Market Outlook

This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

203 13

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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

00:00 - Market Sell-Off & Friday's VIX Surge
01:03 - VIX Model Spread & Bollinger Band Extremes
02:46 - VIX1D Dynamics & Potential Monday Bounce
03:25 - Implied Correlations Ahead of Earnings
04:10 - S&P 500 Technical Levels & Put Gamma Wall
06:10 - S&P Upside Resistance & CTA Trigger Levels
07:55 - Treasury Yields & Bond Market CTA Flows
10:00 - Stock vs. Bond Yield Correlation Shifts
12:40 - Korean Won & The Unwinding AI Trade
15:34 - Final Thoughts & Wrap-Up

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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

00:00 – Intro & Macro Context
01:13 – Why the VIX Has Limited Downside Room
01:47 – The Theoretical VIX Model vs. Actual Price
03:27 – The Implied Volatility Dispersion Trade Explained
04:20 – Comparing Current Conditions to the Summer Tech Surge
05:37 – Implied Correlation: Are We in a New Regime?
07:46 – What Correlation Says About the S&P 500's Next Move
08:44 – Deep Dive: Implied vs. Realized Correlation Data
10:52 – Single Stock Volatility & Skew Breakdown
12:46 – Volatility Breadth & Highs vs. Lows Analysis
13:38 – Key Takeaways: S&P Range, Gamma Walls & Market Outlook

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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

00:00 - Introduction & Jobs Report Reality
01:45 - Labor Force Participation & Household Survey
03:05 - Aggregate Weekly Payrolls vs. GDP Growth
04:45 - Real Fed Funds Rate vs. Historical Cycles
07:23 - Intraday Treasury Yield Reversal
09:12 - Term Premium Expansion & 10-Year Yield Targets
11:05 - Real Yields vs. Inflation Expectations
12:12 - Global Pressures & Summary

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The 10-year Treasury yield broke out of a downtrend that goes back to 1987 and is now testing 5.25%, the double top from 2006 and 2007. This week brings JOLTS, PCE, the final Q2 GDP revision, ISM manufacturing, the September jobs report, and Micron earnings, and strong data could push rates through that level toward 5.50% and 5.90%.

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0:00 The week ahead: JOLTS, PCE, GDP, ISM, jobs, Micron
2:15 10-year breakout and the 5.25% level
5:00 30-year yield and the 6.7% measured move
7:00 Real yields and the 5y5y forward
9:30 The end of easy money
11:00 S&P 500 vs equal weight and small caps
13:00 Implied correlation and dispersion
15:00 Modeling where the VIX should trade
18:00 Why the risk is skewed lower

This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

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While markets reacted quickly to the Fed's latest move, underlying financial conditions and liquidity signals tell a very different story. In this video, we break down what investors may be overlooking and what it means for the broader market.

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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

Analyze the latest interest rate hike expectations and how they align with Federal Reserve objectives.

This video examines the current economic landscape through recent financial charts and data. We break down the Federal Reserve policy stance to help you understand how these anticipated moves influence broader market stability and institutional positioning.

By evaluating these trends, you can better prepare for potential volatility. We isolate the core economic indicators that matter most, helping you cut through the noise to see how central bank objectives are shaping the current financial environment.

Subscribe for weekly financial analysis breakdowns, and tell me in the comments if you think the market has fully priced in the latest rate hike expectations.

00:00 Decoding the Fed's Tightening Strategy
00:38 The Chicago Fed Index Explained
02:28 Monetary Policy and Treasury Issuance
05:02 Reverse Repo and Collateral Dynamics
08:32 Projecting Future Rate Hike Cycles

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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

The latest CPI report has created a complex situation for the Federal Reserve ahead of their upcoming meeting.

Markets are currently pricing in a high probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, leaving investors to navigate significant uncertainty. This analysis examines how the recent data release shifted expectations and evaluates the impact of public commentary from Chris Waller on the central bank's decision-making process.

We break down the implications of these developments to help you understand how current market volatility may influence your portfolio positioning. By isolating the key drivers behind these policy shifts, this report provides the clarity needed to adjust your strategy ahead of the Fed's next move.

Subscribe for weekly financial analysis breakdowns, and tell me in the comments if you think the Fed will proceed with this hike.

0:00 The Fed's Dilemma Following CPI Data
0:47 Global Central Banks and Rising Rates
3:36 Market Signals from Treasury Yields
5:34 Financial Conditions and Credit Spreads

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