Mott Capital Management

Inflation swaps are surging ahead of this week's December CPI report amid surging interest rates.

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#sp500 #stocks #stockmarket #cpi #fed #qqq #spy #rates

Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

The US jobs report could shape were rates and risk-assets go in a huge way.

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#sp500 #stocks #stockmarket #cpi #fed #qqq #spy #rates

Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

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#stocks #fed #jobreport #inflation #rates

This week is set to be pivotal for the financial markets as critical economic data rolls in, shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s future policy path. Since September, markets have significantly adjusted their rate cut expectations, now projecting fewer than two cuts for 2025. Strong economic data in the coming days could reinforce the view that the rate-cutting cycle may be nearing its end—or even hint at the possibility of rate hikes. The S&P 500 finished last week down 50 basis points, but a Friday rally helped offset further declines. Key technical levels, including the 50-day and 10-day moving averages, are acting as resistance points, making this a crucial moment for market movements.

Interest rates are also in focus, with the 10-year Treasury yield approaching significant resistance at 4.60%, a potential breakout level that could drive rates higher. This week’s economic calendar includes S&P Global PMI data on Monday, JOLTS and ISM Services on Tuesday, and the highly anticipated ADP employment report and nonfarm payrolls later in the week. Market sentiment is sensitive to any upside surprises in jobs data, wages, or unemployment rates, as these could challenge current expectations for rate cuts in 2025 and reignite fears of a return to tightening. Additionally, shifts in the yield curve and rising term premiums on longer-dated bonds reflect growing inflation and duration risk concerns.

As markets brace for these developments, there’s a broader narrative unfolding about the potential normalization of the yield curve. Real yields have risen significantly across the curve, signaling that the market anticipates fewer rate cuts and perhaps even further hikes. This trend is underscored by changes in forward Treasury contracts, which now suggest that short-term rates could climb higher over the next year. If strong data confirms these shifts, we may see a dramatic adjustment in rate expectations, impacting markets in the weeks and months ahead. Don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe to stay informed on these crucial market updates—your continued support helps grow this channel. See you midweek for more analysis!

Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

00:01 - 00:38 - Intro
00:38 - 02:55 - This Week In Markets
02:55 - 04:24 - Economic Calendar
04:24 - 04:54 - Rate Cut Projections
04:54 - 05:49 - Fewer Rate Cuts
05:49- 06:24 - Yield Curve
06:24 - 07:10 - Steepening
07:10 - 07:53 - Real Yields
07:53 - 09:28 - Rate Cutting Over?
09:28 - 11:25 - Term Premium
11:25 - 12:00- 30 Yr Surge
12:00 - 12:17 Closing Remarks

Night Runner by Audionautix is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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Stocks closed the week with significant turbulence as liquidity constraints and rising rates continued to pressure the market. The steepening yield curve and climbing long-term rates are placing additional strain on already fragile conditions. Questions are mounting about whether this is the start of a fundamental shift or a temporary reaction to year-end balance sheet adjustments, with volatility and market sentiment on edge.

Following the Fed’s recent announcement, markets saw dramatic swings: a sharp two-day decline, a retracement rally, and another drop before recovering slightly on Friday. Liquidity has emerged as a growing concern, with levels contracting sharply post-Fed meeting. Key indicators, such as bid-ask spreads in S&P 500 futures and SPY ETFs, widened significantly, signaling tighter market conditions and heightened volatility.

Additionally, the demand for leveraged equities appears to be fading, as evidenced by collapsing funding costs in futures contracts and a sharp decline in repo market activity. With long-term rates like the 10-year nearing potential breakout levels, the pressure on equity markets may intensify. As we look ahead, the possibility of further yield curve steepening looms, creating a challenging environment for investors.

#sp500 #stocks #stockmarket #cpi #fed #qqq #spy #rates

Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

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The stock market experienced a sharp plunge this week, signaling what could be the start of a massive deleveraging event. After a period of historically low realized volatility, the recent surge in market turbulence has rattled investors. Margin levels have skyrocketed by 9% over the past month, even as reserve balances at the Federal Reserve plummeted, intensifying liquidity concerns. Meanwhile, the overnight repo market has seen increased activity as investors scramble to amplify leverage, a risky strategy given the soaring funding costs. Key indicators like the S&P 500’s 2% drop, a failed retracement at the 61.8% Fibonacci level, and a spike in the VVIX underscore the heightened volatility that began with December’s jobs report and persisted through the Federal Reserve’s hawkish pivot. These developments suggest sustained market volatility and elevated financing costs could reshape investor behavior in the weeks ahead.

The mounting cost of leverage has emerged as a significant challenge, reflecting broader financial market stress. Data from BTIC S&P 500 total return futures shows financing rates have surged since mid-September, coinciding with record-high dealer activity in the repo market. Despite shrinking reserve balances, the demand for leverage remains strong, pushing financing costs to unprecedented levels. With realized volatility rising and the VIX hovering in the 16-20 range, investors are navigating an environment fraught with uncertainty. Monitoring primary dealer reports, reserve balances, and daily BTIC S&P 500 futures data will be critical for assessing liquidity trends and funding pressures. As quantitative tightening and reduced repo facility balances continue to constrain markets, these dynamics could maintain elevated volatility and limit risk-taking for the foreseeable future.

#sp500 #stocks #stockmarket #cpi #fed #qqq #spy #rates

Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

https://www.themarketchronicle.com/p/the-stock-market-struggles-may-only


Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments o...

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As expected, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, but the market was caught off guard by the Fed’s positioning regarding future rate cuts. Looking back, it was somewhat obvious. Earlier today, I shared a video for Market Chronicles paid members, highlighting how analysts were expecting more rate cuts than what the Fed Funds Futures and overnight swaps markets were pricing in. Historically, in my experience, the FOMC aligns more closely with Fed Funds and swaps markets than with analysts’ expectations, so the analysts seemed overly optimistic.

We may see fewer—or potentially no—rate cuts next year. The Fed swaps market is currently pricing in just one rate cut for next year, with the odds of more than two cuts essentially at zero. Currently, the market projects the Fed Funds rate to end 2025 around 4%, which implies just one more small rate cut. This marks a significant shift from where expectations stood three to six months ago—or even last year.

(BLOOMBERG)

The two-year Treasury yield, currently hovering around resistance at 4.35%, could rise significantly. A breakout above 4.35% might push it towards 4.61%.



Meanwhile, the 10-year yield, now trading at 4.52%, is breaking out and could reach 4.75% or higher. Ultimately, if Fed Funds settle in the upper 3% range and you add a premium of 2–3% above Fed Funds, the 10-year yield could approach 6%. Similarly, the two-year yield in the high 4% range suggests another 200 basis points higher for the 10-year, reinforcing the potential for it to reach 6%.

The dollar strengthened sharply today, hitting 108, its highest level since November 2022. This puts the Bank of Japan in a bind ahead of its policy decision tonight. The yen, which is weakening against the dollar, has risen to 155. I doubt the BOJ wants further yen depreciation, so it may be forced to either raise rates or adopt a hawkish tone on future rate hikes.



This scenario continues to reflect the higher rates, stronger dollar, and tighter financial conditions we’ve discussed before. Credit spreads also widened significantly today. The CDX High Yield Credit Spread Index rose 17 points to 315—still low by historical standards but much higher than the sub-400 levels of a year ago. A widening in credit spreads typically translates to higher earnings yields on the S&P 500, which could lead to multiple contractions.

The S&P 500 dropped 3% today, closing below 5,900. If the index breaks this level, it could decline into the 5,600s.

The VIX also spiked, ending the day at 27.6—up 12 points. The one-day VIX rose 32 points to 45.75, signaling sharply higher implied volatility. Realized volatility is also climbing, with the 10-day measure rising to 17.5, the 20-day to 13.5, and the 30-day to 12.

Small caps had a rough day, falling 4.5% and erasing all their post-election gains. The Russell 2000 is now back to November 2023 levels. Regional banks dropped about 5%, and the housing sector also saw significant declines, with the Philly Housing Sector Index (HGX) down almost 4%.

Finally, the three-month forward rate (18 months out) rose to 4.40% today, above the three-month Treasury spot rate for the first time in a long while, This marks the end of a prolonged period of inversion since the fall of 2022. The curve's uninversion may further signal that the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle has concluded, as it closed above 0% at 0.06% today.

Have a great night, and I’ll see you next time.

-Mike

Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. S...

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Global rates are nearing a breakout ahead of key central bank meetings, with equity financing costs surging and market breadth weakening. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points today, aligning with market expectations. Tonight, the Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise rates but may signal hawkish intentions, as long-term Japanese yields show bullish patterns, indicating potential for higher rates. Tomorrow morning, the Bank of England is also expected to hold rates steady due to strong wage growth and persistently elevated inflation. Globally, liquidity constraints and rising credit spreads are pressuring markets, with deteriorating breadth and funding costs adding to the strain. These dynamics suggest that rates could climb higher, potentially impacting markets into the new year.

Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

https://www.themarketchronicle.com/p/stocks-continue-to-melt-as-equity

It was another weak day for the markets. The S&P 500 closed lower by 39 basis points, but weakness was more pronounced in the RSP equal-weight index, down 80 basis points. The Dow dropped for the ninth consecutive day, losing 66 basis points.

Breadth continues to deteriorate across the marketplace. In the S&P, 378 stocks were down, while only 120 were up. Looking at the Bloomberg 500 proxy for the S&P, the decline would have been worse had Tesla not gained 3.5%, which contributed approximately 2 points to the index, even as it finished 9 points lower. Broadcom notably unwound, falling 4%, while Nvidia dropped about 1%. Signs of deterioration are increasingly apparent.


The NYSE McClellan Oscillator ratio-adjusted finished today at -73.5, which is not an extremely oversold condition. For context, it hit -100 in April, so there is still room for further decline, but a reasonably low level.

More importantly, the NYSE Summation Index—essentially a cumulative measure of the McClellan Oscillator—closed at 88. This index becomes particularly significant if it drops below zero, which could signal broader market changes. We will need to monitor this closely.

Another key indicator today was NYSE new highs minus new lows, which showed 119 more new lows. On a cumulative basis, this metric appears to be rolling over, although it’s still early, and such patterns have reversed in the past.

In the S&P and broader cash markets, the index continues to hold together by finding support where it can. Currently, key support lies around 6,030, while resistance remains near 6,100.

Looking ahead, tomorrow brings the Fed meeting. Implied volatility in this meeting is relatively low, with one-day IV at 13.5. This number is likely to climb as we approach the meeting and then fall after the press conference begins, creating that volatility crush and potential SPX spike higher.

Today’s retail sales data was solid, yet the 10-year yield remained flat, finishing just a little lower. What’s particularly notable is the global rates setup, especially in the UK and Japan. British 10- and 30-year yields are approaching big levels last seen during the fall of 2022 and summer of 2023. We are now back to the highs reached during the September 2022 “mini-budget” turmoil under Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng. If tomorrow’s UK CPI data comes in hot, it could delay BOE rate cuts and push yields higher.

Similarly, Japanese 10-year JGBs are near their highs and appear poised to break out. This suggests the bond market is pricing in a potential rate hike from the BOJ on Thursday—something that would defy expectations of inaction. If global rates continue rising, particularly in the UK and Japan, U.S. 10-year yields could follow suit, as global markets are highly interconnected.

Lastly, financing costs for equity exposure are becoming increasingly expensive. Today, January contracts for the BTIC S&P 500 Total Return Futures settled at 227 basis points above Fed funds rates, while March contracts closed 180 basis points above. December contracts, meanwhile, sit at 121.5 basis points. The January contracts are now trading 105 points above December, and March contracts are trading 47.5 points below January.

Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable fo...