Challenging the Mainstream Narrative on Markets
Institutional-grade macroeconomic analysis delivered daily. Cut through the noise with research-driven insights on equities, rates, currencies, gamma positions, liquidity, and global trends.
Latest Analysis
- Markets Brace for a Perfect Storm of Liquidity and Positioning Risk
Heavy Treasury settlements, tightening funding signals, and Nvidia’s earnings could converge to reshape volatility, correlation, and positioning dynamics across the market. - Liquidity Drain Sinks Stocks on February 12
Stocks declined sharply amid heavy settlement flows and elevated dispersion, with volatility levels suggesting potential short-term support but heightened risk around upcoming earnings and next week’s sizable settlements. - Technical Extremes Build Beneath a Calm Index
Rising dispersion, elevated constituent volatility, and overbought sector conditions suggest that while the S&P 500 appears stable on the surface, underlying risks may be building as earnings season progresses. - Stocks Fall Ahead of January Job Report
Stocks drifted lower ahead of the Jobs report as a $40 billion T-bill settlement and elevated one-day volatility weighed on sentiment, with key settlement flows and the VIX 1-Day in focus. - Liquidity Drains and Volatility Set the Stage for a Turnaround Tuesday
U.S. equities finished higher, but upcoming Treasury bill settlements and a likely rebound in short-term implied volatility could create a more challenging trading environment in the days ahead. - Yen at a Crossroads as Global Liquidity Dynamics Tighten
Treasury settlement activity is set to potentially drain roughly $150 billion over the next two weeks, pressuring reserve balances and dealer balance sheets. Meanwhile, Japan’s LDP landslide election win clears the way for PM Takaichi’s loose fiscal agenda, raising the prospect of further USD/JPY weakness past 160. Mike Kramer breaks down the liquidity mechanics, cross-currency basis swap trends, and what it all means for equity markets.
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A Decade of Institutional-Grade Market Research
Michael Kramer founded Mott Capital Management and has spent his career analyzing U.S. and international equity markets in high-stakes institutional environments.
His work focuses on publishing detailed research on macro trends shaped by generational and demographic shifts, providing readers with a long-term perspective on how these themes unfold over time.
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In-depth market research since August 2014
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“Understanding the macro environment is the key to navigating markets. Every trade starts with a thesis, every thesis starts with the data.”— Michael Kramer, Founder
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