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Latest Analysis
- Nvidia Breakout Remains Elusive as Dispersion Unwind Looms
A muted VIX reaction, critical resistance at NVIDIA’s $200 level, and heavy Treasury settlements set the stage for limited upside and shifting volatility dynamics in the days ahead. - Elevated Dispersion Suggests Mechanical Market Reversal Lies Ahead
Stocks closed higher as short-term implied volatility fell, but elevated earnings risk, wide volatility spreads, and rising credit spreads suggest potential turbulence ahead. - If Nvidia Cracks the S&P 500 Probably Does Too
The S&P 500 faces mounting downside risk as key gamma support at 6,800 holds for now, while Nvidia’s earnings, delta positioning, and heavy Treasury settlements threaten broader market stability. - Fourth-Quarter 2025 Thematic Growth Update
The Thematic Growth Strategy underperformed in 2025 amid AI-driven market speculation, prompting strategic rotations into med-tech and energy while reassessing mega-cap technology exposure. - Markets Brace for a Perfect Storm of Liquidity and Positioning Risk
Heavy Treasury settlements, tightening funding signals, and Nvidia’s earnings could converge to reshape volatility, correlation, and positioning dynamics across the market. - Liquidity Drain Sinks Stocks on February 12
Stocks declined sharply amid heavy settlement flows and elevated dispersion, with volatility levels suggesting potential short-term support but heightened risk around upcoming earnings and next week’s sizable settlements.
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A Decade of Institutional-Grade Market Research
Michael Kramer founded Mott Capital Management and has spent his career analyzing U.S. and international equity markets in high-stakes institutional environments.
His work focuses on publishing detailed research on macro trends shaped by generational and demographic shifts, providing readers with a long-term perspective on how these themes unfold over time.
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In-depth market research since August 2014
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Regular analysis covering central bank policy, global economics & intermarket dynamics
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“Understanding the macro environment is the key to navigating markets. Every trade starts with a thesis, every thesis starts with the data.”— Michael Kramer, Founder
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