MCM MARKET COMMENTARY

It seems that the recent rally into mega-cap may be nothing more than a flight to safety.

The bulls are still going to have a tough moving higher as long as the call wall remains at 4,200 on the S&P 500.

The bulls may be finished as Jay Powell comes to the plate on Friday morning.

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The week of April 24, 2023, will be busy with economic data and earnings.

The week of April 17, 2023, will feature vix expiration, options expirations, and earnings from companies like Netflix (NFLX) and Tesla (TSLA).

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Stocks rose sharply last week, but the market looks overbought and driven by rotations and systematic flows, not fundamentals.

The Fed is likely to continue raising rates to combat inflation during the week of March 20, 2023.

The week of March 15, 2023, will be filled with plenty market moving headlines.

Get ready for a lot of volatility over the next three weeks.

Stocks may fall further the week of February 27, 2023, as rates and the dollar push higher.

The week of February 20 may be short, but the Fed minutes and the PCE report could provide the stock market with plenty of fire works.

The week of February 13 could be a big week for the markets, with a CPI report coming on Tuesday.

Two distinct cycles are running in the S&P 500 and the NDX that marked previous highs and lows, and they suggest a may now be in place and VIX may be heading higher too.

Rates and the dollar ripped following the hotter-than-expected job reports, and financial conditions may be set to tighten in the coming weeks.

Stocks could sink the week of January 30, 2023, as economic data, earnings, and the Fed collide.

There will be no Fed speakers this week, but plenty of economic data to move the markets around.

January 17, 2023, will be a busy week with options expiring, Fed speak, and earnings are kicking into a higher gear.

The week of January 9, 2023, will feature Jay Powell, the CPI report, and results from JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup.

The week of January 3, 2023, will be an epic data dump that includes the December FOMC minutes.

2023 could be much worse than 2022 as the bear market continues to move forward and rates push even higher.

The week of December 19, 2022, will be filled with economic data and Treasury auctions, so that it will be anything but slow.

The Week of December 12, 2022, will feature a CPI report, 3 central bank rate decisions, and a 10-year and 30-year US auction; it will be busy, to say the least.

Stocks fell sharply on December 6, 2022, for a second day, resulting in the S&P 500 breaking two critical trend lines.

The week of December 5, 2022, will be filled with a ton of important economic data that could suggest a US recession is near.

Stocks rallied as Powell says nothing new causing a dovish pivot.

It was a quiet day of trading as investors gear up for Powell on November 30.

Stocks dropped sharply on November 28, 2022 as the markets prepare for Jay Powell on Wedensday.

The week of November 28, 2022, will be jammed with economic data, and highlighted by Jay Powell on Wedensday.

Stocks appear to be gearing up for higher volatility coming soon.

Stocks finished November 22, 2022, higher as the VIX and the Dollar sank.

Stocks posted modest declines on November 21, 2022, as the dollar rebounded and the euro fell.

The week of November 21, 2022, will be a short one but filled with plenty of news events.

Stocks dropped on Thursday, November 17, 2022, as the dollar pushed higher.

Stocks dropped on November 16, 2022, following a hotter-than-expected retail sales data.

Stocks tried to rally on November 15, 2022 but finished well below their highs.

The stock market hit a brick wall on November 14, 2022.

The doves may take flight the week of November 14, 2022, and spread their wings. Or maybe not…

Stocks rallied sharply after the CPI report came in lower than expected on November 10, 2022.

Stocks dropped sharply on November 9, 2022, one day ahead of the big inflation report.

Stocks had a volatile trading session on November 8 and may be getting ready to break lower.

Stocks managed to rally again on November 7, 2022, as the vix and the dollar both fell.

The week of November 7, 2022, will be another volatile week for the stock market, with rates and the dollar on the move.

Stocks dropped on November 3, 2022, and are getting closer and closer to making new lows.

Stocks finished the day lower after the Fed delivered a hawkish message to the market.

Stocks fell on November 1, 2022, one day ahead of the November FOMC meeting.

Bond yields rose sharply on October 31, 2022, and so did the dollar.

The week of October 31, 2022, is going to be a an incredibly busy for the stock market.

Stocks dropped on October 27 due to weak earnings and a stronger dollar.

Stocks fell on October 26, 2022, ahead of a big ECB meeting.

The doves may be flying to close to the sun.

Just when you thought the Fed had inflation under control and was ready to pivot… Think again…

It will be a busy post-OPEX week of October 24, 2022, with an economical heavy calendar.

Rates and the dollar soared on October 20, 2022, and now stocks may be due to fall.

Stocks fell on October 19, 2022, as the 2-Yr yield made a new cycle high.

Stocks rally on October 18, but the vix options expiration may free the market’s trading range.

Stock may still have further to fall the week of October 17, 2022.

Stocks rally as implied volatility melts, you know the drill…

Stocks finished October 12, 2022, slightly lower a day ahead of the big CPI report.

Stocks fell on October 11, 2022, and are setting up for what could be a giant slide lower by the end of October.

The bond market was closed in the US but was open everywhere else on October 10, 2022.

The week of October 10, 2022, will be very important for markets, and easily the most important of October.

Stocks fell about 1% ahead of the all-important September jobs report.

Stocks fell sharply to start the day but managed to bounce back by day’s end.

Stocks rose again on October 4, 2022, very odd.

Sure stocks rallied on October 3, 2022, but that doesn’t mean it will last.

The week of October 3, 2022, may see the S&P 500 test 3,500 as it heads towards 3,200.

Stocks dropped sharply on September 29, 2022, as reserve balances fell below $3 trillion for the first time since November 2020.

Stock’s rallied on September 28, 2022, as the Bank of England moved to stabilize the British bond market.

Stocks tried to rally for a second straight day and appear to be due for a bounce or big break down.

The S&P 500 plunged to a new closing low on September 26, 2022.

The week of September 26, 2022, is likely to be another hectic one for markets.

Stocks finished the day lower as real yield push even higher.

The Fed was more hawkish than expected causing stocks to drop.

Stocks may be ready to rally on September 21, 2022 no matter what the Fed says.

The VIX melt late in the day on September 19, 2022, helped to lift stocks into the close.

The weight of the evidence suggests new lows are coming to a stock market near you.

Stocks fell on September 15 and may fall further due to tomorrow’s options expiration date.

Stocks consolidated on September 14, 2022, but we have seen this show before.

The S&P 500 fell by more than 4%, while the NASDAQ dropped by more than 5% following hotter-than-expected inflation data on September 13, 2022.

Everything rises, as stocks rise, yields rise, and the vix rise.

The week of September 12, 2022, will be a very big one for the stock market.

Stocks look like they are on the verge of the same outcome as April.

Stocks jumped on September 7, as market await Jay Powell’s Q&A session tomorrow.

Stocks fell on September 6 as economic data sent rates and the dollar sharply higher.

Stocks go into the week of September 5, 2022, feeling like they are on life support.

Liquidity and leverage may be leaving the system, which is not good for stocks.

Stocks drop on August 31 as rates push higher.

Stocks fell sharply on August 30, and are nearing a major inflection point.

Stocks fell again on August 29, 2022

Stocks fell sharply on August 26 and are likely to see further losses the week of August 29, 2022.

Stock have been range bound all week, but that may change on August 19, 2022.

Stocks fell on August 17, 2022, as canaries began to appear everywhere.

Stock may finally get to pivot on August 17, it just won’t be from the Fed.

Stocks rallied on August 15, but beneath the surfaces the cracks grow wider.

The week of August 15 may prove to be more challenging for now overbought stock markets.

Stocks were up and turned lower on August 11, 2022, as long-term rates exploded higher into day’s end.

Stocks jumped on August 10 along with inflation.

Stocks moved lower on August 9, 2022, one day ahead of the big CPI report.