Independent Macro, Liquidity, and Options Research Published Daily
Institutional-grade macro, liquidity, and options analysis delivered daily, with a focus on positioning, gamma exposure, dealer hedging flows, and the key levels driving markets.
Latest Analysis
- Oil Volatility and Broadcom Selloff Pressure Markets
The S&P 500 finished the day lower by roughly 60 basis points, while oil prices rose by more than 2%. WTI appears to be forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern and,… - Options Markets Reflect Growing Macro Risk
The options market appears increasingly focused on correlation risk as dispersion remains elevated, index volatility stays relatively cheap, and semiconductor stocks continue to lead the market. - Record VIXEQ-to-VIX Spread Signals Growing Market Tensions
The record-wide VIXEQ-to-VIX spread, rising market dispersion, falling correlations, and elevated semiconductor volatility point to growing tensions beneath the surface of the stock market. - Extreme Volatility Positioning Raises Pullback Risk
This week brings the ISM report, ADP employment report, and the BLS jobs report. Data releases like these used to matter a great deal, but for the moment the market… - The Market’s Crashing Up While Correlations Hit Their Lowest Since 2024
Today’s tape: Dispersion · Implied correlations · VIXEQ · VXSMH · Micron · Semiconductors · Broadcom · Call-skew froth · 2024 analog Today’s pivot: Does Broadcom’s report this week keep… - Another Deal Day Another Market Rally
The S&P 500 rallied on renewed optimism about a new Iran deal, while the VIX fell below 16. Bitcoin and PSP weakened, highlighting mixed liquidity signals beneath the S&P 500’s advance
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Over a Decade of Independent Market Research
Michael Kramer founded Mott Capital Management and has spent more than a decade publishing independent research on U.S. and global markets.
His work focuses on publishing data-driven analysis covering macro trends, options market structure, dealer positioning, and gamma exposure — providing readers with both a long-term perspective and a quantitative edge in understanding market mechanics.
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“Understanding the macro environment is the key to navigating markets. Every trade starts with a thesis, every thesis starts with the data.”— Michael Kramer, Founder
Explainer articles on the market mechanics that drive our daily analysis — gamma exposure, dealer flows, liquidity dynamics, treasury settlements, and volatility dispersion.
Explainer articles on the market mechanics that drive our daily analysis — gamma exposure, dealer flows, liquidity dynamics, treasury settlements, and volatility dispersion.
How dealer positioning and gamma exposure drive short-term S&P 500 moves — the structural mechanics underneath the headlines.
Read →How dealer hedging flows produce rallies and reversals — and why gamma squeezes cluster around options expirations.
Read →Why the S&P 500 pins and unwinds — how the dispersion trade shapes index-level volatility and single-name behavior.
Read →Why the VIX is more than a fear gauge — how to read it in context with realized volatility and dealer positioning.
Read →Decoding SOFR, the TGA, and bank reserves — and why funding dynamics often matter more than the macro narrative.
Read →How Treasury settlement days drain or release cash — and why bill-issuance cadence has become a market-driving signal.
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