01 Today

The mechanics underneath the market, every day after the close.

Michael Kramer’s daily read on rates, volatility, liquidity and dealer positioning, and what it means for the next session.

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Published in MarketWatch · Seeking Alpha · Capital.com · CMC Markets

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Today's note — 11 October 2026Low Market Volatility Meets a Calendar Full of CatalystsRead the note →

02 What we’re watching

Charts in Focus

A Potential S&P 500 Double Top Meets Rising Credit Stress — S&P 500 remains above near-term trend support, but widening credit spreads, Oracle’s elevated CDS pricing, pressure on European…

Rising Real Yields Point to a 6% 10-Year Treasury Rate — Hawkish Fed minutes, a strong 10-year Treasury auction, and rising forward real yields frame Michael Kramer’s outlook for…

The VIX Has Very Little Room To Fall Even If The VIXEQ Rises — Stocks moved higher ahead of the Fed minutes as low implied correlation, rising single-stock volatility, and the approaching…

03 Recent commentary

10 Oct 2026The VIX Index Doesn’t Have Much Further Room To Fall It was a quiet week. The Fed minutes read more hawkish than the market expected, though they softened some of what Williams and…

08 Oct 2026A Potential S&P 500 Double Top Meets Rising Credit Stress 07 Oct 2026Rising Real Yields Point to a 6% 10-Year Treasury Rate 06 Oct 2026The VIX Has Very Little Room To Fall Even If The VIXEQ Rises 05 Oct 2026Higher Rates Test an Increasingly Narrow Stock Market

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Understanding the macro environment is the key to navigating markets.

Every trade starts with a thesis, every thesis starts with the data.

Michael Kramer — Founder

04 Market mechanics

Explainer articles on the market mechanics that drive our daily analysis — gamma exposure, dealer flows, liquidity dynamics, treasury settlements, and volatility dispersion.

01 Gamma exposure How dealer positioning pins the index — and what happens when it flips. 02 Gamma squeezes How dealer hedging fuels rallies — who has to buy, and when. 03 Liquidity dynamics Reserves, funding, and the cash that sets the marginal bid. 04 Treasury settlements Issuance, settlement days, and the drains that show up in the tape. 05 Volatility dispersion Why index calm and single-name chaos can be true at the same time.

05 Who writes this

Michael Kramer

Michael Kramer founded Mott Capital Management and has spent more than a decade publishing independent research on U.S. and global markets. His work covers macro trends, options market structure, dealer positioning, and gamma exposure — giving readers both a long-term perspective and a quantitative edge in understanding market mechanics.

A former buy-side trader, analyst, and portfolio manager, he began his career in high-risk trading environments, trading U.S. and international equities.

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Daily Market Analysis & Macro Research

The mechanics underneath the market, every day after the close.

Charts in Focus

Michael Kramer

The free daily note, after the close.