Independent Macro and Options Research Published Daily
Institutional-grade macro and options analysis delivered daily, with a focus on positioning, gamma exposure, dealer hedging flows, and the key levels driving markets.
Latest Analysis
- The Impacts Of Treasury Bill Issuance On The S&P 500
The Impacts Of Treasury Bill Issuance On The S&P 500 For nearly three years, the equity market appeared to absorb significant Treasury bill issuance with little visible cost to bank… - Small Cap Narrative Faces a Reality Check
Small caps led the market lower as AI-related holdings continued to dominate performance drivers, while USD/JPY remained resilient above 155 and volatility markets showed little concern ahead of the jobs report. - Narrow Tech Leadership Continues as Oil and Rates Fall
Oil prices and Treasury yields fell sharply while technology stocks continued to dominate market performance, highlighting increasingly narrow leadership and the growing importance of options positioning around earnings. - Equity Volatility Disconnect Deepens
SPY volume was lower than on the day after Thanksgiving. At least based on the data I have, total volume was just 35.9 million shares. Christmas Eve, a half day,… - Oil and Treasury Yields Surge as Markets Face Inflation Pressures
Rising oil prices, higher Treasury yields, and increasing inflation expectations are converging to challenge equity market stability amid growing issuance and volatility shifts. - Inflation Stays Hot as Yields Near Big Breakout
Inflation pressures remain elevated following strong ISM data, while Treasury yields across the curve show technical breakouts. With key labor and services reports ahead, markets may be underestimating the risk of higher rates.
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Over a Decade of Independent Market Research
Michael Kramer founded Mott Capital Management and has spent more than a decade publishing independent research on U.S. and global markets.
His work focuses on publishing data-driven analysis covering macro trends, options market structure, dealer positioning, and gamma exposure — providing readers with both a long-term perspective and a quantitative edge in understanding market mechanics.
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“Understanding the macro environment is the key to navigating markets. Every trade starts with a thesis, every thesis starts with the data.”— Michael Kramer, Founder
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