Independent Macro and Options Research Published Daily
Institutional-grade macro and options analysis delivered daily, with a focus on positioning, gamma exposure, dealer hedging flows, and the key levels driving markets.
Latest Analysis
- Equity Volatility Disconnect Deepens
SPY volume was lower than on the day after Thanksgiving. At least based on the data I have, total volume was just 35.9 million shares. Christmas Eve, a half day,… - Oil and Treasury Yields Surge as Markets Face Inflation Pressures
Rising oil prices, higher Treasury yields, and increasing inflation expectations are converging to challenge equity market stability amid growing issuance and volatility shifts. - Inflation Stays Hot as Yields Near Big Breakout
Inflation pressures remain elevated following strong ISM data, while Treasury yields across the curve show technical breakouts. With key labor and services reports ahead, markets may be underestimating the risk of higher rates. - Equity Rally Faces Questions Amid Cross Asset Volatility Gaps
Equities rose as volatility declined, but a sharp divergence with oil volatility and yen intervention signals rising cross-asset risks. - Global Bond Yields Rise as Volatility Follows The Fed
Markets face rising volatility as global bond yields climb, Fed dissents emerge, and investors await earnings and key central bank decisions. - S&P 500 Faces Pressure as Dispersion Trade Compresses
The S&P 500 faces downside risk as rising oil, rates, and a stronger dollar compress the dispersion trade ahead of the FOMC meeting and key earnings.
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Over a Decade of Independent Market Research
Michael Kramer founded Mott Capital Management and has spent more than a decade publishing independent research on U.S. and global markets.
His work focuses on publishing data-driven analysis covering macro trends, options market structure, dealer positioning, and gamma exposure — providing readers with both a long-term perspective and a quantitative edge in understanding market mechanics.
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“Understanding the macro environment is the key to navigating markets. Every trade starts with a thesis, every thesis starts with the data.”— Michael Kramer, Founder
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