Independent Macro, Liquidity, and Options Research Published Daily
Institutional-grade macro, liquidity, and options analysis delivered daily, with a focus on positioning, gamma exposure, dealer hedging flows, and the key levels driving markets.
Latest Analysis
- S&P 500 Falls Below Key Support as Treasury Yields Surge
The S&P 500 slipped below its 10-day EMA while Treasury yields surged and oil prices broke out, raising the risk of continued pressure on equities and interest rates. - Oil Breakout Stalls as Stock Market Volatility Rises
Oil looked poised to break out today but could not clear the trendline. At least for now, oil bulls will have to wait and see if the market can gather… - How To Read A Treasury Auction Using Three Key Signals
Treasury auctions directly impact yields, liquidity conditions, and ultimately stocks. This primer explains how to read stop-throughs, tails, bid-to-cover ratios, and dealer takedowns like a macro trader. - Global Yield Breakout Pressures Stocks and Raises NVIDIA Risks
Global markets sold off as surging bond yields in Japan and Europe tightened financial conditions, pressured equities, and raised the risk of a volatility-driven unwind in NVIDIA following earnings. - Inflation Returns, Real Rates Break Out, And Markets Price Hikes Everywhere But The Fed
Inflation returned this week as real yields pushed sharply higher, global bond markets sold off, and markets began pricing rate hikes everywhere but the Fed. - Nvidia Momentum Highlights Speculative Nature of Rally
Nvidia’s pre-earnings gamma squeeze and heavy call buying continue to drive a narrow S&P 500 rally, while upcoming options expiration could ease mechanical hedging flows.
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Over a Decade of Independent Market Research
Michael Kramer founded Mott Capital Management and has spent more than a decade publishing independent research on U.S. and global markets.
His work focuses on publishing data-driven analysis covering macro trends, options market structure, dealer positioning, and gamma exposure — providing readers with both a long-term perspective and a quantitative edge in understanding market mechanics.
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“Understanding the macro environment is the key to navigating markets. Every trade starts with a thesis, every thesis starts with the data.”— Michael Kramer, Founder
Explainer articles on the market mechanics that drive our daily analysis — gamma exposure, dealer flows, liquidity dynamics, treasury settlements, and volatility dispersion.
Explainer articles on the market mechanics that drive our daily analysis — gamma exposure, dealer flows, liquidity dynamics, treasury settlements, and volatility dispersion.
How dealer positioning and gamma exposure drive short-term S&P 500 moves — the structural mechanics underneath the headlines.
Read →How dealer hedging flows produce rallies and reversals — and why gamma squeezes cluster around options expirations.
Read →Why the S&P 500 pins and unwinds — how the dispersion trade shapes index-level volatility and single-name behavior.
Read →Why the VIX is more than a fear gauge — how to read it in context with realized volatility and dealer positioning.
Read →Decoding SOFR, the TGA, and bank reserves — and why funding dynamics often matter more than the macro narrative.
Read →How Treasury settlement days drain or release cash — and why bill-issuance cadence has become a market-driving signal.
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