The Market Chronicle By Michael Kramer

If the recent surge in oil prices and implied volatility is a sign of things to come, the market may have to reprice its expectations for the Fed’s rate path significantly higher.

The stock market continued its grind, but this week as a calendar full of big macro events.

The AI trade faces growing downside risks as semiconductor stocks approach critical support, the KOSPI weakens, Asian currencies strengthen, and investors rotate away from mega-cap technology stocks.

Stocks may have room to rally as the VIX declines, but rising correlations, widening European bond spreads, and major economic events could trigger renewed market volatility.

Semiconductor stocks face growing downside risks as credit default swap spreads widen, SMH tests critical support, and the 2-year Treasury yield threatens another breakout.

Stocks rose modestly despite a sharp decline in short-term volatility, while widening credit spreads, rebounding Treasury yields and rising oil prices point to growing risks for the S&P 500.

Global bond yields, Japanese inflation, and South Korean monetary policy could drive the next major market move, with implications for US Treasury yields, semiconductor stocks, and the AI trade.

    The VIX spiked on Friday, which is what we were talking about last week, when the VIX was relatively low, and the better chance was that it would rise. The market pulled back about 1% on two separate days, finishing the week about 2% lower on the S&P 500, while the Nasdaq 100…

Stocks rebound despite hotter-than-expected inflation data as Treasury yields retreat globally, while AUD/JPY approaches critical support that could signal a shift in global liquidity and market risk appetite.

The S&P 500 tumbled following a hotter-than-expected CPI report as technology stocks broke key support levels, small caps weakened, and rising bond market volatility raised concerns about further downside ahead of PPI.

With realized volatility approaching historic lows, limited downside in the VIX, and a potential triple top in the SPY-to-RSP ratio, the stock market may be approaching a significant volatility regime shift as investors await the CPI report.

The US dollar could be preparing for a major breakout, threatening gold prices and semiconductor stocks as South Korea’s KOSPI tumbles and markets brace for Wednesday’s CPI report.

S&P 500 volatility remains unusually low as rising inflation risks, Kevin Warsh’s upcoming remarks, the October Fed meeting, and midterm elections threaten to disrupt market complacency.

  It was a quiet week. The Fed minutes read more hawkish than the market expected, though they softened some of what Williams and Jefferson had said the week before, and Waller pushed back against colleagues offering forward guidance. The more interesting story sits in the volatility market as earnings season begins. The VIX is…

S&P 500 remains above near-term trend support, but widening credit spreads, Oracle’s elevated CDS pricing, pressure on European financials, and upcoming T-bill settlements keep downside risks in focus.

Hawkish Fed minutes, a strong 10-year Treasury auction, and rising forward real yields frame Michael Kramer’s outlook for inflation, monetary policy, and longer-term Treasury rates.

Stocks moved higher ahead of the Fed minutes as low implied correlation, rising single-stock volatility, and the approaching earnings season shape the outlook for the VIX.

Rising Treasury yields, falling S&P 500 valuations, unusually high bond volatility, and weakening market breadth suggest higher rates are increasingly pressuring equities beneath the surface.

Broad core PCE inflation, strong household-survey employment growth, and rising prices paid are pushing Treasury yields higher and increasing pressure on S&P 500 valuations as the 10-year yield moves above the index’s forward earnings yield.

Everyone is calling Friday’s jobs report weak because the establishment survey showed just 29,000 jobs. The household survey tells a very different story, with employment rising by 406,000 in September after roughly 600,000 in August, nearly a million people finding work in two months. The unemployment rate ticked up only because people came off the…

Stocks finished little changed as Treasury yields reversed lower, while investors turned their attention to the jobs report, labor-force dynamics, and the outlook for Fed policy.

Stocks moved lower as Treasury yields climbed, with investors watching the 30-year Treasury near 5.85%, Japanese government bonds near a potential breakout, and Friday’s jobs report.

Stocks finished mostly lower ahead of PCE as the S&P 500 retested a broken uptrend while HYG, rising bond volatility, and widening global credit spreads pointed to growing divergence between equities and credit markets.

Rising global bond yields, higher real rates, widening credit spreads, and key resistance levels in Treasuries are increasing pressure on gold and potentially the S&P 500 ahead of PCE and jobs data.

Market liquidity could face a new headwind as Treasury bill issuance returns, with potential implications for stocks, high-yield credit, and market breadth.

The 10-year Treasury yield breakout tests 5.25% as jobs, PCE and Micron loom. Bond volatility is surging while the VIX sits under 15. Here’s why that matters.

S&P 500 divergence is widening as bond volatility surges, Treasury yields rise, and equal-weight stocks and high-yield credit fall behind.

Treasury yields surged after strong PMI data as the S&P 500 fell, the dollar strengthened, and signs of widening credit spreads emerged.

Semiconductor stocks including Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom are rallying, but widening CDS spreads, USD/KRW trends, and surging options activity may signal risks for the SMH.

Stocks rallied as Meta became the apparent epicenter of an options-driven squeeze, while rising realized volatility and a firm VIX complicated the outlook.

Inflation expectations and rising real rates are tightening financial conditions, pushing Treasury yields higher and pressuring equity valuations.

The S&P 500 is holding up while weakening breadth and rising Treasury issuance, along with Fed hiking rates could make October a test.

The S&P 500 rebounds on a post-Fed volatility unwind as investors turn their attention to the Bank of Japan rate decision and critical AUD/JPY support near 110.

The Fed raised rates by 25 bps as the 2-year Treasury yield moved toward 4.73%. Here’s what to watch next in rates, gold, USD/JPY, and the S&P 500.

Markets brace for the Fed rate decision as volatility rises, real yields climb, and futures pricing points to multiple rate hikes ahead.

S&P 500 support at 7,600 comes into focus as options positioning weakens and the 10-year Treasury yield tests the critical 5% level.

Market volatility rises ahead of the Fed decision as deteriorating liquidity, weakening market breadth, and rising bond volatility create risks for stocks.

Markets are pricing a Fed rate hike as inflation remains elevated, global central banks tighten policy, and Treasury yields push toward critical levels.

A Treasury yield breakout pushed the 10-year near 5%, while rising rates and weakness in high-yield bonds added pressure to financial conditions.

S&P 500 downside risks are building as Treasury yields approach 5%, key technical support comes into focus, oil rises, and markets await PPI.

The S&P 500 faces pressure as oil prices rise, Treasury yields move higher, and a stronger yen threatens to increase global market volatility.

Credit spreads remain historically tight even as interest rates rise in the U.S. and Europe, putting financial conditions in focus ahead of the ECB meeting and Friday’s CPI report.

Fed rate hike risk is growing ahead of the August CPI report as inflation pressures build and Treasury yields push toward new highs.

USD/JPY fell 1.85% on BOJ hike bets. Implied correlation bottomed at the yen’s peak in 2024 and 2026, and a stronger yen may mean higher index volatility.

Stock market volatility is sending mixed signals as realized volatility sinks, the VIX holds firm, and implied correlation rises.

The S&P 500 has barely moved for months, but fading dispersion, rising correlations, potential CTA selling, higher oil, and climbing yields could change that.

66 charts on the market entering September 2026: S&P 500 trend, volatility and dispersion, rates and the Fed, liquidity, credit, earnings, inflation and global markets.

Stocks face pressure as the 10-year Treasury yield nears a potential breakout, with key jobs and economic data ahead that could push yields toward 5%.

September’s stock market outlook for the S&P 500 points to a potential volatility shift as dispersion falls, correlations rise, and semiconductor weakness comes into focus.

The 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 5% as September rate hike expectations build, strengthening the dollar and pressuring bonds, metals, and stocks.