Mott Capital Management

Stocks declined after President Trump announced new 25% tariffs effective August 1 for countries including Japan and South Korea, increasing market uncertainty. Meanwhile, the dollar index is signaling a potential reversal higher, suggesting volatility could rise further in coming days.

📉 Global currencies are moving in one direction, U.S. stocks in another. Who’s right? In today’s video, I break down the major divergence between the equity markets and global currencies like the Taiwan dollar, Korean won, and Swiss franc. While the S&P 500 pushes to new highs, the U.S. dollar is weakening almost everywhere. What…

Tomorrow is Job’s Friday, except it only be Thursday.

A clear rotation hit markets today as the Nasdaq dipped and the equal-weight S&P 500 surged. Key ratios suggest caution ahead, highlighting historical patterns tied to previous market pullbacks.

President Trump appears to have appointed himself the unofficial “Shadow Fed Chair,” pushing for much lower overnight rates. With liquidity conditions tightening and bond markets hinting at slowing growth, stock indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are flashing overbought signals. This week’s economic data could reveal whether markets remain resilient or face renewed volatility.

Markets enter a short yet data-packed week dangerously overbought, driven by Nvidia’s relentless climb despite tightening liquidity conditions. With implied volatility suspiciously low ahead of critical economic data and rising trade rhetoric, investors may be underestimating potential turbulence. Meanwhile, gold’s breakdown could signal deeper trouble ahead.

Stocks rose modestly on low volume as volatility remains compressed and investors position cautiously ahead of looming tariff deadlines and weaker data.

Stocks stall amid declining volumes, as Nvidia becomes increasingly overbought. Rising repo rates signal tightening liquidity pressures ahead of quarter-end.

Interesting times in the stock market. At 1 PM yesterday, it seemed the world was on the verge of collapse as the S&P 500 tested 5,950, seemingly poised to head straight for the JPM collar. Xers were tweeting that the Strait of Hormuz was closing, declaring oil would soon hit $150. They even shared charts…

Stocks swung wildly amid low liquidity, driven by Tesla’s sharp rally. Volatility fell sharply as geopolitical tensions eased, while key currency pairs reversed intraday and Treasury yields held critical support.

Oil surges from US-Iran conflict fuel inflation fears & rising rates. NASDAQ faces downside as technicals and post-OpEx volatility amplify market risks.

Stocks Flat as Fed Projects Slower Growth, Higher Inflation and Unemployment

Stocks fell today and they may be more to come..

Stocks were higher on the day, and so was realized volatility.

Quarterly Taxes are due this week.

It was another low-volatility, low-volume trading session for S&P 500 futures, with the cash market rising by about 40 bps on the day. As noted yesterday, the 40 bps gain resulted in 10-day realized volatility finishing at 6.85, slightly down from 6.86 yesterday. Essentially, realized volatility has nowhere to go from here unless we start…

stocks fall as tariff talks heat back up.

It is getting tight out there…

Still waiting…

The S&P 500 rebounded on Friday following Thursday’s chaotic trading session. Friday’s rally appeared mostly mechanical, driven by volatility levels resetting after the jobs report. As volatility settled down, the cash market effectively stalled out. Oddly, many unusual dynamics are unfolding in the volatility space, particularly concerning correlations and the substantial gap between realized and…

X vs. Truth the ultimate showdown.

Stocks rose on June 3.

Strange divergent price action across assets.

Rates and Credit spreads are the biggest threat to stocks presently.

Interesting day to say the least.

It was a messy quarter as export controls bite.

Stocks rose sharply as rates in Japan plunged.

It is a big week for the stock market.

That was the second afternoon in sell-off in a row.

The 20-year auction didn’t go well, and that sent everything into a tailspin.

Stocks fell and rates rose, there may be more to come.

Stocks and Bonds were able to bounce back from their overnight declines.

Markets surged following positive trade developments with China, but the surprise Moody’s downgrade and rising volatility suggest that this rally may have run its course. With the bond market exerting pressure and the dollar weakening, equities appear vulnerable, setting the stage for a potential correction.

The market should start to move more freely starting tomorrow.

The 30-year rate may be heading higher.

Stocks finished the day higher, but went from oversold to overbought incredible time.

Stocks moved higher, as implied volatility crush took effect.

The technicals are coming together to show that this is a major level of resistance.

S&P 500 getting over 5700 is really having problems.

Uncertainty was the word of the day.

Stocks finished lower, but it was a slow day ahead of the Fed meeting.

5/5/25 Volatility in the first quarter increased dramatically ahead of President Trump’s highly anticipated tariff plan. That volatility accelerated at the start of the second quarter, as tariff announcements were significantly worse than expected. The market underestimated Trump’s determination to reshape global trade, and the market may still be underestimating the potential impact. This ongoing…

It was not a good day for the dollar or the stock market.

Stocks continued to rally, but not much has really changed.

Stocks saw a sharp move lower in final minutes ahead of April Job report.

Stock went on a wild roller coaster ride.

The next 3 days carry a lot of event risk, and implied volatility appears to be too low.

Stocks are going on a divergent path from the rest of the market.

It will be a massive week for earnings.