The Market Chronicle By Michael Kramer

Broad core PCE inflation, strong household-survey employment growth, and rising prices paid are pushing Treasury yields higher and increasing pressure on S&P 500 valuations as the 10-year yield moves above the index’s forward earnings yield.

Everyone is calling Friday’s jobs report weak because the establishment survey showed just 29,000 jobs. The household survey tells a very different story, with employment rising by 406,000 in September after roughly 600,000 in August, nearly a million people finding work in two months. The unemployment rate ticked up only because people came off the…

Stocks finished little changed as Treasury yields reversed lower, while investors turned their attention to the jobs report, labor-force dynamics, and the outlook for Fed policy.

Stocks moved lower as Treasury yields climbed, with investors watching the 30-year Treasury near 5.85%, Japanese government bonds near a potential breakout, and Friday’s jobs report.

Stocks finished mostly lower ahead of PCE as the S&P 500 retested a broken uptrend while HYG, rising bond volatility, and widening global credit spreads pointed to growing divergence between equities and credit markets.

Rising global bond yields, higher real rates, widening credit spreads, and key resistance levels in Treasuries are increasing pressure on gold and potentially the S&P 500 ahead of PCE and jobs data.

Market liquidity could face a new headwind as Treasury bill issuance returns, with potential implications for stocks, high-yield credit, and market breadth.

The 10-year Treasury yield breakout tests 5.25% as jobs, PCE and Micron loom. Bond volatility is surging while the VIX sits under 15. Here’s why that matters.

S&P 500 divergence is widening as bond volatility surges, Treasury yields rise, and equal-weight stocks and high-yield credit fall behind.

Treasury yields surged after strong PMI data as the S&P 500 fell, the dollar strengthened, and signs of widening credit spreads emerged.

Semiconductor stocks including Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom are rallying, but widening CDS spreads, USD/KRW trends, and surging options activity may signal risks for the SMH.

Stocks rallied as Meta became the apparent epicenter of an options-driven squeeze, while rising realized volatility and a firm VIX complicated the outlook.

Inflation expectations and rising real rates are tightening financial conditions, pushing Treasury yields higher and pressuring equity valuations.

The S&P 500 is holding up while weakening breadth and rising Treasury issuance, along with Fed hiking rates could make October a test.

The S&P 500 rebounds on a post-Fed volatility unwind as investors turn their attention to the Bank of Japan rate decision and critical AUD/JPY support near 110.

The Fed raised rates by 25 bps as the 2-year Treasury yield moved toward 4.73%. Here’s what to watch next in rates, gold, USD/JPY, and the S&P 500.

Markets brace for the Fed rate decision as volatility rises, real yields climb, and futures pricing points to multiple rate hikes ahead.

S&P 500 support at 7,600 comes into focus as options positioning weakens and the 10-year Treasury yield tests the critical 5% level.

Market volatility rises ahead of the Fed decision as deteriorating liquidity, weakening market breadth, and rising bond volatility create risks for stocks.

Markets are pricing a Fed rate hike as inflation remains elevated, global central banks tighten policy, and Treasury yields push toward critical levels.

A Treasury yield breakout pushed the 10-year near 5%, while rising rates and weakness in high-yield bonds added pressure to financial conditions.

S&P 500 downside risks are building as Treasury yields approach 5%, key technical support comes into focus, oil rises, and markets await PPI.

The S&P 500 faces pressure as oil prices rise, Treasury yields move higher, and a stronger yen threatens to increase global market volatility.

Credit spreads remain historically tight even as interest rates rise in the U.S. and Europe, putting financial conditions in focus ahead of the ECB meeting and Friday’s CPI report.

Fed rate hike risk is growing ahead of the August CPI report as inflation pressures build and Treasury yields push toward new highs.

USD/JPY fell 1.85% on BOJ hike bets. Implied correlation bottomed at the yen’s peak in 2024 and 2026, and a stronger yen may mean higher index volatility.

Stock market volatility is sending mixed signals as realized volatility sinks, the VIX holds firm, and implied correlation rises.

The S&P 500 has barely moved for months, but fading dispersion, rising correlations, potential CTA selling, higher oil, and climbing yields could change that.

66 charts on the market entering September 2026: S&P 500 trend, volatility and dispersion, rates and the Fed, liquidity, credit, earnings, inflation and global markets.

Stocks face pressure as the 10-year Treasury yield nears a potential breakout, with key jobs and economic data ahead that could push yields toward 5%.

September’s stock market outlook for the S&P 500 points to a potential volatility shift as dispersion falls, correlations rise, and semiconductor weakness comes into focus.

The 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 5% as September rate hike expectations build, strengthening the dollar and pressuring bonds, metals, and stocks.

Nvidia lifted the S&P 500 as dispersion began to unwind, correlations rose, and index volatility remained inexpensive ahead of a key market test.

Nvidia beat expectations as volatility stayed remarkably calm, but falling SOFR volumes, shrinking liquidity, hot inflation, and rising long-end rates tell a more complicated story.

Market volatility compresses ahead of Nvidia earnings and Jackson Hole as semiconductor correlations and Treasury volatility point to rising event risk.

Semiconductor stocks pressure the S&P 500 as SMH tests key support, credit risk rises, and volatility builds ahead of Nvidia earnings.

Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech puts bond yields on notice as rising term premiums, global rates, and BOJ tightening expectations pressure the long end.

Nvidia earnings take center stage as options positioning, gamma levels, rising Treasury yields, and market volatility point to asymmetric downside risk.

The S&P 500 slipped into negative gamma as correlations rose, Treasury yields climbed, and semiconductor credit and options risks increased.

Treasury buybacks put bond market liquidity front and center as yields fall, the Korean won strengthens, and semiconductor risks continue to build.

Semiconductor stocks face renewed pressure as credit spreads widen, implied correlations rise, and options positioning creates potential selling risks.

Treasury yields climb as the 30-year reaches 5.31%, while Nvidia and Broadcom credit spreads widen ahead of key semiconductor earnings.

The 30-year Treasury yield is rising as real rates climb, while trading volume, Treasury issuance, volatility, and correlations remain in focus.

S&P 500 volatility could rise after VIX expiration and monthly options expiration remove dealer positioning that has helped keep markets pinned.

Long-term Treasury rates remain elevated after CPI and PPI as real yields rise and the yield curve points to further normalization.

The S&P 500 rallied in the second quarter, led by semiconductor stocks amid optimism about artificial intelligence growth. Memory-chip companies were standouts, helping push the index’s year-to-date total return, including dividends, to 10.2% through June 30. Unfortunately, the Mott Capital Management Thematic Growth Strategy underperformed, declining 4.7% through June 30, inclusive of dividends and net…

The S&P 500 rallied sharply even as liquidity conditions continue to tighten, with T-bill issuance, repo financing and currency hedging in focus.

The S&P 500 gamma squeeze fades as dispersion unwinds and 10-year real yields rise, creating new risks for the market rally.

Rising Treasury yields, unstable S&P 500 gaps, falling dispersion, and a fading gamma squeeze could leave stocks increasingly vulnerable.

The market rally stalled as implied volatility unwound after earnings, while FX moves, dispersion, and correlations pointed to growing risk-off signals.