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Stocks Rally Despite, Higher Rates and Hotter CPI

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3/12/24

#Stocks –

#Macro – $NDX, #VOLATILITY, #CPI

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As mentioned yesterday, it seemed pretty clear that stocks were likely to rally today. Given how high the shorter-dated implied volatility levels got yesterday, on the VIX 1-day, that measure crashed back to 11 from around 19 today. That is pretty much what gave stocks the momentum needed at the start of the day, and it just carried out, even with the CPI coming in hotter than expected.

The 10-year rate did jump higher by around 4.16% on the day, and at least at this point, it has managed to bounce off that support level at 4.10%. As long as the 10-year rate remains above that 4.1% level, it seems possible, given the data, that it will head back towards that 4.35% area and potentially higher.

The 10-year rate was also boosted by a lousy 10-year auction, which showed a drop in indirect acceptance to 64.3%, down from 71% last month. Meanwhile, the high yield rate also tailed by about one bps. Tomorrow, we will also get the 30-year auction at 1 PM ET.

In the meantime, the NASDAQ 100 has been basically chopping sideways since mid-February, just 1% higher than its February 12 high. There is nothing to say other than that it seems like volatility has been increasing with these big 1% moves on a regular basis. It is not unusual behavior in a broadening wedge since a rising broadening wedge is a sign of increasing market volatility. It is a nice-looking pattern, with some good symmetry on the inner trend lines, but for now, there appears to be no clear sense of the next trend.

Anyway, that’s all for today.

-Mike

 

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