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6/3/24
#Stocks: $NVDA
#Macro: $SPX, $RSP, $USDMXN, $VIX
- Stocks Trade Risk-off Following Mixed Data
- 2-Steps Forward, 1- Step Back
- Financial Conditions Are Starting To Show Signs Of Tightening
Stocks traded modestly lower on the day, but some declines were masked by strength in Nvidia. That meant the S&P 500 market cap-weighted index was up just 11 bps, while the equal-weight RSP ETF was down about 50 bps. Meanwhile, the Nvidia-less Dow Jones Industrials fell by 30 bps.
Nvidia has indeed distorted the index and made the S&P 500 useless in some ways. When one stock can offset one index by a meaningful amount daily, that index does not accurately indicate the broader market. The S&P 500 was up almost 6 points, while Nvidia had contributed almost a 16-point gain. So, without Nvidia being up almost 5% on the day, the index would have been down around 10 points. Now, if this happened as a one-off, it is not a big deal, but this seems to happen nearly daily.
It is what it is, but if you aren’t considering this stuff and thinking about its potential impacts, you are missing a significant risk factor that needs to be considered. The data shows that many more stocks were down on the day versus up.
(BLOOMBERG)
Meanwhile, the dollar was sharply lower on the day, following the “weaker” than expected ISM manufacturing report. The ISM manufacturing report has been pretty weak for a long time; using it to gauge the economy’s health hasn’t worked well for some time. Today’s reading suggests the real GDP is growing around 1.7%, which is okay but certainly not recessionary. It probably suggests that the dollar has fallen too much, but the data for the rest of the week will be just as important.
Still, rates fell sharply, primarily due to a decline in oil. Oil fell following news that OPEC production cuts were being extended until year-end but that some voluntary cuts could be eased by October. Oil prices fell by 4%, plunging to around $74, and are now facing a big test of support. A break of support at $74 would potentially result in the prices falling even lower to around $70. Suddenly, the technicals look less favorable than when oil was testing the $80 level at the start of last week.
It was not a great day for the Mexican Peso, which saw the USDMXN rise by more than 4% following the election. The Peso is more of a risk gauge than anything, and today’s move higher will make me wonder what is to follow and if the CDX high-yield credit spreads and 1-month implied correlation index move higher in sympathy.
At least over time, the S&P 500 and the USDMXN have had an inverse relationship, and if that relationship continues, then the aftershocks of today’s peso move could be felt in the days to come.
Because in the end, it is all the same trade.
-Mike
Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment