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7/9/24
#Stocks: $WING, $SMH
#Macro: $SPX, NDX
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Stocks finished the day mostly lower, with about 100Â more stocks down than up for the S&P 500, even though the index finished flattish. The market has been relatively flat, with some metrics hitting certain levels of what seems like stupidity. One has to wonder, though, just how far things will be pushed before the rubber band snaps back the other way.
The NASDAQ 100, for example, has now traded above the upper Bollinger band four out of the 5-weeks and has an RSI of over 75 on the weekly chart.
The NASDAQ 100 also reached a 100% extension off its March 2020 lows when measuring the length of the latest move higher. It doesn’t have to mean anything; we have seen similar measurements that haven’t mattered at all. But one that we can pay some attention to.
Two weeks ago, the S&P 500 had a nice setup for a reversal, but the investors blew it off, and it managed to push even higher, putting the RSI on the weekly chart to almost 77. It is now at the very upper end of the range of what could be completing a rising wedge that we have been tracking for several weeks.
This has allowed the S&P 500 to rise to a 78.6% extension off its March 2020 lows.
You have even seen the 1-month implied correlation index reach historic lows, falling to around 4. That is well below the prior all-time low seen in late 2017 or early 2018.
Meanwhile, Wingstop could be a canary in the coal mine —or the chicken in the coal mine, for that matter. As noted a few weeks back, Wingstop appeared to be forming a rising wedge pattern. Apparently, that rising wedge pattern broke during my time away, and it has led to a small drop over the past two weeks or so.
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The big question will be what happens for the WING at the 10-week exponential moving average because that has been a support level for the shares. A break of that moving average would signal a break in trend.
We care about Wing because, for some reason, it has been a very good proxy for where the S&P 500 is going next. If Wing is rolling over, then it is time for us to pay some serious attention. Wing, more than anything, seems to represent risk sentiment.
Because somehow it even leads the SMH and the last time I checked, Wingstop was a chicken wing chain, and although I have never eaten at one because I haven’t come across many, I’m pretty sure they have nothing to do with AI or selling GPUs.
The one thing WING does have in common is that it is a risk asset. This seems to suggest that the rise in valuations across the market has much more to do with excess risk-taking than anything else. So, at this point, we have to wait to see if the rubber band snaps back or breaks altogether.
-Mike
Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.