Implied Volatility Crush Sends Stocks Higher As Usual During The Fed Announcement

Subscribe to The Free Market Chronicle and join the 2,668 subscribers getting it for FREE!

5/1/24

#Stocks:

#Macro: #Fed, $SPX, $NDX, #Rates #ISM

Mike’s Reading The Markets Macro Subscription Service on Seeking Alpha

The Fed meetings seem to create more confusion than needed, but it is what is what it is. I know that even though I wrote yesterday that at 2:35 PM ET, it was possible that we saw the usual FOMC press conference volatility crush, and that it could send stocks higher, I still get messages and questions about why the market rallied and how the market is taking Powell has “dovish” blah, blah, blah.

Amazingly, the volatility crush started on time, and the S&P 500 rallied as expected. So it wasn’t that the market thought Powell was dovish; it was just that implied volatility melted. Once the volatility crush was over, the sellers came back in and took all of the gains away.

The key takeaway today seems to be that the Fed has no idea when it will be able to cut rates. Powell seems hopeful the policy will be tight enough to bring inflation back to target. If the market helps him and tightens financial conditions, it may be. If the market doesn’t tigthen financial conditions, then policy probably isn’t tight enough.

Today’s ISM prices paid index didn’t suggest that goods inflation is easing. It rose to 60.9, much higher than the estimates for 55.4. It wasn’t a surprise, and it probably suggests an uptick in m/m CPI for April.

At least at this point, the market doesn’t see the first rate cut until December, and at some point, all the sell-side analysts still looking for the cut in July or September will pivot to a later date for the rate cut.

However, 10-year rates refused to move higher today, and the case for rates to move higher will probably have to wait until the Jobs report at this point for that to happen potentially. Positioning around the FOMC meeting didn’t allow for that to happen today.

The dollar index fell today after the BOJ decided to intervene in the FX market again, driving the USDJPY sharply lower. At least they seemed to get a lot of bang for their buck this time around, waiting until 4 PM ET, when liquidity starts to thin out in the FX market.

Bitcoin found some support today, around 57,000. Whether that will hold, I don’t know. I think this is only a minor level of support, and the bigger level of support comes around 51,000. But we will have to see.

The only reason I care about Bitcoin is that it seems to serve as a decent liquidity gauge, and in the past, it has been a decent “tell” on the direction of the NASDAQ 100. It would imply that the NASDAQ’s drop is probably not over, but we must see what happens.

I wouldn’t call today’s drop a break of the bear flag, but it was close, and we need to follow through tomorrow. If the bear flag is broken, then the sell-off in the market should intensify, and the pace of the decline should start to pick up.

Anyway, that was enough excitement for me today.

-Mike

Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.