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April 20, 2021
STOCKS – NFLX, ROKU, IBM, BA, XBI
MACRO – SPY
Mike’s Reading The Markets (RTM) Premium Content – FREE 2-WEEK TRIAL
- Midday- Stocks Drop With More Warnings Signs Building
- Understanding And Modeling S&P 500 Earnings Estimates
- RTM Morning Note- Gearing Up For Netflix
- Netflix Earnings Preview- Need To Know Guide
- Midday – Bitcoin Could Hold The Key To Where Stocks Go
- Morning Note: Gamma Levels Drop, Will Stocks Drop With.
- Peak Earnings Growth May Mean Peak Multiple Expansion – T.W.A
- Morning Note- All Signs Point To A Post Opex Hangover
Stocks fell for a second day, with the S&P 500 dropping by 70 bps, nothing too exciting. The only thing established today is some good support around the 4,125, which was anticipated. There is still a gap at 4,080 that needs to be closed, and with Netflix dropping tonight, we could see that get filled tomorrow. I still think we head towards 3,960 over the next few weeks.
Biotech (XBI)
Well, I wasn’t sure what kept the XBI from falling below $126.85, and I figured it out. That is where the 200-day moving average rests. The XBI already broke its 50-day moving, and a break of the 200-day would be terrible. I am wondering if the XBI already broke the 200-day, and now it is acting as resistance. It sure looks like it could be. It doesn’t look good overall, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it drop to $114.
Netflix (NFLX)
Netflix is falling below $500 in the after hour. It missed net adds for the first quarter and guidance for the second quarter. Not a good sign. Clearly, the “re-opening” effects are happening sooner, not to mention they raised prices.
I don’t think I have ever seen them guide a quarter to just 1 million net adds. That means there may even be a risk net adds, turning to net losses in the second quarter, which will likely cross people’s minds, especially after the company missed guidance by around 2 million subscribers in the first quarter.
The price around $490 now becomes resistance with support at $470. The stock has tested $470 many times, and I think these results could put that in play.
Roku (ROKU)
Roku is trading lower following the Netflix news, as it should. The next level to watch there is around $300.
IBM (IBM)
Not only did IBM break out today and rise above resistance at $136, it gapped over resistance. Maybe even a breakaway gap. That could be good news and pave the way for a push to $148.
Boeing (BA)
Boeing fell about 4% today. The stock broke below support at $239, making it possible for the stock to fall back to $215.
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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