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February 5, 2020
Stocks – ACAD, SWKS, DIS, BA, ROKU
Macro- SPY, Fed, Economy
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN ACAD, SWKS, AND DIS
February 13, 2020, Live Streaming Event
Michael will be hosting a live streaming event for members of Reading The Markets for Seeking Alpha and StockTwits on February 13 at 9 PM ET. It will focus on he uses fundamentals, technicals, and options market analysis to find stocks on the move. As well as taking questions from members!
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S&P 500 (SPY)
Stocks rose sharply on February 5 by over 1.1% to close at 3,334, finishing just below the old all-time highs around 3,337. The question on everyone’s mind, do we move higher, or do we move lower to fill the gap down at 3,300. It seems very difficult to decide, that is for sure, but it really would not surprise me to see the S&P 500 reverse lower to fill that gap. After all, there two giant gaps that needed to be filled, so filling at least one seems reasonable.
The ISM non-manufacturing report came in much better than expected at 55.5 versus a consensus of 55.2. More importantly, it corresponds to a 2.4% GDP growth in the first quarter. Additionally, we also got the ADP jobs data today, which was significantly better than expected at 291,000 versus estimates of 154,000. It leaves the BLS jobs report for us to ponder on Friday morning.
But more interestingly is that the market appears to be pricing in another rate cut, despite the surprisingly healthy economy. You can see how the current fed funds futures deviate from the prospects for July and September.
Disney (DIS)
Disney fell today, which I’m having a tough time understanding because the numbers the company reported on the streaming seemed to be very strong. The market appears to be discounting that — suggesting that the sharp rise in subscribers will not last, or that the surge in subscribers has already been priced in. We will need to watch how the stock trades going to forward to find our answer.
Boeing (BA)
Boeing did well today, rising above the downtrend we have been tracking. It likely indicates the stock increases to around $340. Even the RSI looks a little bit better.
Roku (ROKU)
Well, if Disney’s subscriber results weren’t good enough to lift the Disney, then they most certainly weren’t good enough to lift Roku’s, and that is what happened. The stock fell today and still has all the markings of a stock heading lower.
Skyworks (SWKS)
Skyworks has managed to hold support, and as long as it doesn’t get caught up in any negative China-related headlines, I think this one should be ok. The stock managed to hold key support levels at $112.50. Remember it was last week we saw some betting shares would rally.
Acadia (ACAD)
Perhaps my eyes are deceiving me, but is Acadia breaking out of a falling wedge? It sure looks like it. Clear, $43.50, and I think we start to see some upside price action. Maybe, they will even report fourth quarter results before the first quarter ends. They don’t even a date scheduled yet? How is that even possible?
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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