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January 26, 2021
STOCKS – MSFT, AMD, SBUX, SQ
MACRO – SPY, RINF
Mike’s Reading The Markets (RTM) Premium Content – FREE 2-WEEK TRIAL
- Earnings Preview: Tesla Shares May Rise Following Results On Massive Volatility
- Midday- Cracks Form Beneath As Stocks Wait On The Fed
- MORNING NOTE- QUIET START
- Midday – Redlining?
- Earnings Preview: Microsoft May Jump Follow Quarterly Results
- MORNING NOTE: THE MANIA RAGES
- Earnings Preview: AMD
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN MSFT AND TSLA
Stocks finished the day mostly lower, with the S&P 500 down around 15 bps. Most of the day was boring again, with the push down coming in the final trading minutes.
It does not come as a surprise that the market is in a holding pattern in the last two days, with the FOMC meeting tomorrow. I don’t expect anything to really come from the Fed tomorrow in terms of policy changes or additional rounds of QE. The only thing I will be listening for will come around timing or color around a taper and potentially any responses Powell makes regarding the equity market; I’m expecting questions to be asked.
Inflation Rates (RINF)
The one noticeable thing is that breakeven inflation rates have pulled back some in recent days, and that is worth exploring. The S&P 500 has largely just followed inflation expectations since last January. A move lower in inflation expectations has led to lower equity prices in the past. We will need to see if these expectations continue to fall and how far equity prices diverge. (Subscriber premium content on SA Marketplace – Yields And Inflation Rate May Be Predicting Lower Equity Markets)
Microsoft (MSFT)
Microsoft is trading higher following a big beat on the top and bottom line. The shares are breaking above their previous highs and could be heading towards $255. (Subscriber premium content on SA Marketplace – Earnings Preview: Microsoft May Jump Follow Quarterly Results)
Starbucks (SBUX)
Starbucks is falling a little after posting results that didn’t seem so great overall based on some of the top-line numbers I saw. Overall, there is a negative pattern in the stock, with what appears to be a head-and-shoulders pattern, so I expect that shares will continue to struggle.
AMD (AMD)
AMD reported what looked like blowout results and guidance. Still, the stock is trading down a touch. It is somewhat surprising to see, and I’m a little confused by it. As I previously noted, the chart doesn’t look great. The strong results and lack of post-trading movement could signify that the results weren’t good enough. How the stock trades tomorrow will certainly tell us a lot about what happens next. (Subscriber premium content on SA Marketplace – Earnings Preview: AMD)
Square (SQ)
Square is starting to really break down, and I really tried to get more into it today in the chat session. The stock has become highly tied to Bitcoin, and the worse Bitcoin trades, the more of a drag it will be on Square. The stock is breaking the uptrend at $210, and $200 will really be a critical spot for the stock to hold.
Have a good one
Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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