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11.5.20
Stocks – NVDA, GE, XOM
Macro – SPY, VIX
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- I Still Think We Get A Short-Term Retest
- What Does The Dollar Know?
- Stocks Remain Stuck At The High End Of Range
- The Feedback Loop Is Sending Stocks Higher, Vix At Key Support
- A Path To 3800 On The S&P 500 In 2021
- Volality Implodes
- Volatility Collapsing
Some housekeeping items. I am trimming the email list; it is incredibly expensive to maintain an email list through a sending service. So to keep costs under control, I will be removing inactive address.
For whatever reason, Google has decided not to serve ads to my website for the past 2 months. I have no idea why, and there is no one to speak to, so I do not know what is going on. So given that, I now make no revenue from the website and have tremendous cost. Therefore, I will no longer be providing an AM write-up. Sorry. Again, I have no control over this, and as much as I love Alphabet as an investment, their customer service sucks.
I provide an AM commentary that comes with an audio update and a transcript to my subscribers. You are welcome to try the service for the first 2-weeks for free. If you love it, great; if not, not an issue; cancel, I won’t bother you.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Anyway, the S&P 500 was flat today, despite solid jobs data. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell, and when I looked at the data, I was expecting to see a big move in the unemployed column going to the, not in the labor force column. I was pleasantly surprised to see that number of employed workers rose dramatically, and the unemployment rate falling was real.
The futures were down about 1% before the day but managed to move higher following the jobs data. Still, the index was stuck below the trend line all day and still suggests a triangle pattern forming in the index. If that is the case, we should continue to see back-and-forth trading over the next few weeks, essentially trading sideways.
Dollar
The dollar fell again. I really can’t think of a good reason for it to fall. I read somewhere it is because of weaker growth going forward. But then yields should be falling much faster, and they are not. It could just be foreign investors selling dollars due to the uncertainty around the election.
Gold (GLD)
Gold has been rising too, which could result from the dollar falling or a move for safety. But it appears the metal is breaking out, and as long as the dollar stays weak and continues to fall, it is likely heading higher from here.
AMD (AMD)
AMD had a good week; I doubt it last. There is no reason for it last. The company will be issuing billions of dollars worth of stock to buy Xilinx, which will be dilutive to existing shareholders. Maybe the deal will create “value” and be accreditive to earnings. But it doesn’t mean the market will continue to give it lofty that earnings multiple. Good Luck.
AT&T (T)
AT&T keeps going lower and lower. The stock is kind of at that place of no return. If it drops below $26.10, it would have quite a distance to fall, basically erasing decades worth of value creation. It seems like every time Time Warner does a deal; it doesn’t work out very well. Remember AOL? Probably not.
Roku (ROKU)
Yeah, Roku has a market cap of $30 billion.
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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