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February 23, 2021
STOCKS – ROKU, AMD, AAPL, ADBE
MACRO – SPY
Mike’s Reading The Markets (RTM) Premium Content – FREE 2-WEEK TRIAL
- Bear Case: S&P 500 2,860
- Midday: Stocks Bounce, But Yields Remain Unphased
- Morning Note: The Repricing Continues
- Midday Day: Stocks May Not Be Able to Handle What Comes Next
- Morning Note: Yields Continue To Pressure Stocks
- T.W.A – Are The Bears Back?
- NVIDIA: Covered Call Strategy Ahead Of Results
- 2.19.21 Chatboard And Live Stream Replay
- Midday – Rates Are Breaking Out
- MORNING NOTE: BUCKLE UP, THINGS MAY GET MORE VOLATILE AFTER TODAY
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL
A pretty crazy day for stocks, with the S&P 500 finishing 3,880, up 13 bps, but had been down as much as 2% at one point. The sell-off came at the opening, with the big, slow grind higher over the balance of the day. This has been the pattern we have seen for a few days.
The trend of lower highs and lower lows continues. The S&P 500 made it all the way back to the downtrend, but that is where it is stopped.
The index tested the 3,800, basically within 20 points of my 3,780 target. But until the downtrend is broken, we have to stick with the lower trend, and I think we are likely to see a retest of those lower prices,d around 3,800.
The other problem is that rates went nowhere during the mini sell-off. They have been stuck around 1.35%, and based on the technicals, the 10-year looks ready to take its next leg higher to around 1.51%.
So, in reality, nothing dramatically today, despite the massive rebound Intraday. Next week may prove to be more problematic, with the ISM reports all due out. That could add extra pressure to inflation worries.
It tells me overall; the markets are not out of the woods just yet.
Additionally, some of you might find this chart interesting. From the March to the February highs, the 61.8% retracement level comes around 2,860. If you look, you will also see that is where a giant gap from April lives. It could be merely a coincidence, or it may be telling us something else. I go over this and much more in a video session today for Reading The Markets on SA marketplace; you can sign up for your free 2-week trial. Bear Case: S&P 500 2,860.
Apple (AAPL)
Apple did not have a great day, and although it seems like the stock mounted this epic comeback, all it did was fill the morning gap. That is not a bullish indication. In fact, it likely suggests that the selling continues tomorrow.
AMD (AMD)
AMD also saw similar price action today, and again, I think this signals a bearish indication, with a likely retest of the $80 level.
Adobe (ADBE)
Adobe made it back to $506 recently and failed to advance. The stock test a key level of support today at $450. A break of support would likely signal a long drop to around $415.
Roku (ROKU)
Roku fell sharply today, but more importantly, it broke that big uptrend that started in November. It could signal the end of the rally in the stock. The stock couldn’t rally after results and trades for a ridiculous multiple on several cases. You can read more in this free article, but 35% is a possibility for this one. (Should be free to read – Roku: The Party May Finally Be Over)
-Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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