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April 12, 2021
STOCKS – NVDA, AMD, INTC, XBI
MACRO – SPY, IEF, VVIX
Mike’s Reading The Markets (RTM) Premium Content – FREE 2-WEEK TRIAL
- Midday: Volatility Rises As Biotech Falters
- Morning Note – Options Market Does Not Support Higher Stock Prices
- T.W.A: The Week Of April 12 Is Likely To Be Harder For Stocks
- Midday Note- Setting Up For A Rug Pull
- Live Webcast Tomorrow At NOON
- Morning Note – Here To Pump You Up
Stocks finished the day flat, with volume levels that continue to underwhelm. The S&P 500 finished the day at 4,128, and the Qs finished around $336.70. But what was kind of surprising, despite a very tight trading range, was the CBOE VIX Volatility Index, which rose for the third day in a row. We need to take note of this because it typically proceeds a move higher in the VIX index, which we know has an inverse relationship with the S&P 500.
Biotech (XBI)
Additionally, our risk-on indicator, the XBI, continues to trade badly. The ETF closed today, just above support, with rising volume and falling RSI. This tells me the ETF is likely going lower, which is likely to be bad news for the equity market’s overall health.
10 Year (IEF)
Meanwhile, the 10-Years look as though it is getting ready to take its next major leg higher, with the potential to push towards 1.95%.
NVIDIA (NVDA)
NVIDIA had a good day, though, rising by 5.6% after it said that first-quarter revenue was tracking ahead of guidance and said it would begin to produce CPUs for the data center. The stock finally made it through $575, but I will be curious to see what happens. The deal for ARM is still dilutive to holders since it will give Softbank a huge stake in the stock. Additionally, the stock is already overbought, so the timing of this news doesn’t seem ideal. It probably means the stock will struggle to move higher from here.
AMD (AMD)
Good news for NVIDIA can sometimes spell bad news for AMD, and bad news was the case today for AMD. AMD fell 5% today and moved below $80 again. I still think this stock trades sub $70. The trends still point lower.
Intel (INTC)
Intel also got hit pretty hard today. The stock hit resistance near $69, and the NVIDIA news sent Intel sharply lower; I guess it was perfecting time. Intel needs to hold support at $65.40 because if it can’t, it will likely fall to $59.75.
Ok, have a good Tuesday; I won’t be around, but I will be back on Wednesday.
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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