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11.18.20
Stocks – TSLA, MSFT, NVDA, T
Macro – SPY, QQQ, VIX
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- Stocks Continue To Struggle At Resistance
- Bonds Signaling Double-Dip Recession?
- 2 Long-Term Theme Ideas And Valuations
- Signs For A Drop To 3200 Mount
- More Bearish Bets Placed On The SPY
- Bonds/Dollar Not As Excited As Stocks
- On Watch For A Sharp Pullback
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN TSLA and MSFT
The S&P 500 finished the day lower by 1.2%, and the NASDAQ fell by around 70 bps. It was a sleeper most of the day, with the action coming in the final hour after NYC announced it was closing school and going to remote learnings.
I’m not sure if the two are linked or coincidence; after all, I have been saying over the past week how burnt out this market is, and today was no different, except that the sellers finally came in.
S&P 500 (SPY)
There is still plenty of room for the S&P 500 to fall, and it could easily be back around 3,200 in the blink of an eye, erasing all of the post-Presidental election move higher. If not for the implosion in volatility that week, I’m not sure we should have rallied as much as we did. With the VIX falling below 22 today, we are at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to volatility squeezing the market higher.
This is just another narrative we can add to the laundry list of reasons why the stock market is beyond exhausted.
The S&P 500 broke the uptrend today and failed at resistance again at 3,625. That opens a path for gap fill to 3,540.
NASDAQ (QQQ)
The Qs saw volume pick up some today, but only because the sellers came out.
Nvidia (NVDA)
Nvidia reported results after the close that came in better than expected. It does look like margins missed by a hair for this quarter and next quarter guidance. Datacenter growth slowed rather materially on a sequential basis but let’s facts, the second quarter data center growth couldn’t have been repeated. The stock hasn’t done much of anything after hours. When big beats don’t drive stocks higher, it tells you something about the stock’s direction, and it is not positive.
Tesla (TSLA)
Well, we knew everything for Tesla hinged on the stock rising above resistance at $460. It did that today, and the stock went to $487. The next level to watch for comes around $505, and the all-time high.
Microsoft (MSFT)
Microsoft may be heading lower, back towards $198.
AT&T (T)
AT&T is back to resistance at $28.90, and I really can’t find much to like about this company. They seem to a lot of things the wrong way, based on some previous acquisitions. Watch for the gap fill back to $27.50.
Have a good night!
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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