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May 1, 2020
Stocks – AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, QCOM, NFLX
Macro – SPY, QQQ
Funny Level – Not So Much
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL AND MSFT
Mike’s Premium Content on Reading The Markets
- Massive Shift On The Horizon
- The Week Ahead For April – Volatility To Rise?
- The Velocity Of MZM May Drive Rates Even Lower
- Understanding On Close Imbalances
Stocks are falling in the pre-market with the S&P 500 ETF pointing to d a decline of about 2.2%. Most of Europe is closed today, and at least on the surface, it seems like the market is responding to the weak earnings reports and from some comments that I heard from President Trump last night about China and the virus, and (gulp) the use of tariffs.
Don’t forget you get the ISM Manufacturing Report at 10 AM. That should be interesting.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The index is falling outside of the rising wedge I noted yesterday, and that could spell bad news for the market and the big run-up in April. The next meaningful level of support comes around $280. We are also well below the Volatility Trigger zone on the SPX around 2,850. This is a topic we talk about in the premium area a lot later. Premium content – The Week Ahead For April – Volatility To Rise?
NASDAQ (QQQ)
The Nasdaq Q’s are falling today outside of the rising channel for the first time since the March lows. Depending on where the NASDAQ closes, this could be an extremely bearish indication. More important, that bull rally you saw since the end of March is over.
If you think it is not possible, go back and check your history charts. Hint – start in the year 2001.
Amazon (AMZN)
Amazon is falling today, and that $2,440 region has been brutal for Amazon, factor in the news that the company is going to spend a lot is sinking the by 6% this morning. The stock still potentially has further to fall back, perhaps back to around 2,180. No one should be surprised by this; this is how Amazon operates, spend, spend, spend. In the past, it never mattered because, in the long-run, the spending is positive, but that was then, this is now, and investors ran to this as a safe-haven trade. But it is not working out as planned.
Apple (AAPL)
Apple is falling some after reporting weak iPhone sales. I wrote this article for Forbes, as I think the stock is range bound between $260 and $295.
Netflix (NFLX)
Meanwhile, I think Netflix will continue to move lower and head towards that $386 level. Didn’t I tell you last week, to use Netflix as a proxy for Amazon?!
Nvidia (NVDA)
Nvidia is falling today too, and I still think this one is going back to $245 and maybe $218. Have you notice the stock tops out the same price all the time.
Microsoft (MSFT)
I still think Microsoft is heading back to $161 to $165. I said it would fall following results to that level. I never said it would drop the very next day. The options traders bet run through May 15, don’t forget that. Premium content – Traders Are Betting Microsoft Falls After Earnings
Qualcomm (QCOM)
Again, I think Qualcomm falls to $65. Like Microsoft, I never did I say the day after earnings. Patience is needed sometimes. Instead of being impulsive, let the stock’s price action tell you direction.
Have a good one.
Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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