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12.10.20
Stocks – AMZN, SMH, ADBE, AVGO
Macro – SPY,
Mike’s Reading The Markets (RTM) Premium Content – NOW WITH A 2 WEEK FREE TRIAL
- The Calm Before The Storm – Video
- The Calm Before The Storm
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- Streaming Media War Rant – Morning 12.9.20
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- The Snowflake Convexity Squeeze
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- A Correction May Be Imminent
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- These Things Tend To End When Least Expected – Week Of December 7
The S&P 500 finished down around 13 basis points, while the Qs gained back some of yesterday’s losses, rising by 40 bps. Not much really changed from a technical or fundamental standpoint today. There was no news on stimulus today despite initial jobless claims rises by more than expected.
The setup in the chart continues to look rather bearish to me. Here are the S&P 500 futures, and there is clearly a rising wedge, and at the very least, we are testing an uptrend. A break of the uptrend sets up a retest of an uptrend around 3,350, with the potential for something far worse. A 68% retracement of the pattern in a correct wave takes it as far as 2,750.
The RSI in the Futures already broke, and volume has picked the last few days. (premium video – The Calm Before The Storm – Video)
Amazon (AMZN)
I think the triangle pattern is complete Amazon, and it is now on support at 3,100. A break at support sets up a push down to $2800.
Broadcom (AVGO)
Broadcom reported results, which were ok. Probably not good enough for the move up the stock has seen. Like I said in my predictions for the week article, I think the stock heads lower, and a break of $400 sets up that decline to $372 I was looking for. Good thing I do my own work.. :P****
Adobe (ADBE)
Adobe reported results today, and they were good, but the stock didn’t care. The shares are now on support at $474, with a decline to the lower end of the trading channel coming.
Semis (SMH)
It is hard to find a sector more overvalued than the Semis; with the SMH now breaking the uptrend and an RSI that reached way overbought, Broadcom will not help either. A drop to $183 would be nothing.
Anyway, that’s all for today. Sorry for the delay.
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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