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July 28, 2020
Stocks – BA, SPLK, MCD, NXPI, SHOP
Macro – SPY, QQQ
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- Recent Move Lower Likely To Continue- Midday
- S&P 500 Put Buyers + Dollar’s Gloomy Message
- Big Option Bet Suggest Market Has Seen Its Highs – Morning
- It’s All About The Risk-On Trade – The Look At The Week Ahead
- EPS Trends May Be Stabilizing, Positive For Long-Term View On Stocks
- How Low Can Markets Go If The Uptrends Break
- Trends Suggest Lower Prices Lie Ahead – Midday
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)
Bizarre overnight trading action with the futures surging, only to give back all the gains up and only to turn negative. The Nasdaq 100 futures traded up to 10,760 and is now trading down to 10,650. Last night I drew in a trend line in the NQ futures, and at least for now, that seems to be a new level of resistance.
Copper
Meanwhile, copper prices rose back to the uptrend, and that acted as resistance, with the metal falling to advance and retake the uptrend. A decline below $2.86 creates a series of lower highs and lower lows and likely confirms a reversal of the trend.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The S&P 500 ETF is trading down by about 20 bps, after failing at resistance at $323.60. A drop below $319 sets up a steeper decline to $311.
Shopify (SHOP)
Shopify is trading higher this morning after Goldman Sachs upgraded the company ahead of results tomorrow morning to a buy from neutral with a $1,127 price target. I tend to think the stock is heading the other way first, to around $740.
NXP Semi (NXPI)
NXPI is trading lower after posting disappointing revenue and inline guidance. The stock is hanging around support at $115. It is a significant level that needs to hold with the potential for the stock to fall to $106 otherwise.
Splunk (SPLK)
Splunk is now trending lower too, and I, as I noted a couple of weeks ago, the uptrend that had been strong since the March lows broke, never recovered. I tend to think this group of stocks is essential since the software space had been one of the hottest sectors in the market. The stock was had its price target raised today to $228 from $188 at UBS>
Boeing (BA)
Boeing is drawing closer to a break of the descending triangle and heading lower to $144 and potentially $126.
McDonald’s (MCD)
Finally, McDonald’s is falling and breaking an uptrend this morning after reporting weaker than expected earnings of $0.66 versus estimates for $0.76 per share. A drop below $178 could be trouble, so lets hope it doesn’t get there.
Have a good day.
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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