This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own Netflix, Acadia, Tesla
February 27, 2019
- S&P 500 -5 points as 8 AM
- 10-Year 2.63%
- Oil $56.60 +1.96%
- VIX 15.5
- Dollar Index 95.98
- Japan Nikkei +0.50%
- Shanghai +0.42
- Hang Seng -0.05%
- KOSPI +0.37%
- ASX200 +0.36%
- DAX -0.38%
- FTSE -0.67%
Sorry, today will be brief. I overslept. 😳 I was up late last night working on a last-minute project request I got late yesterday. Nothing like burning the midnight oil on a Tuesday night. At 41, I find the recovery time the next day isn’t what it use to be.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Anyway, the S&P 500 is flat this morning February 27, and from the few headlines I have caught today, I can’t see why there should not be a continuation of what we have seen these past few weeks. The one thing that continues to bother me is that gap down at 2,750. In the worst case scenario, it should serve as strong support, keep an open mind that it is looming out there. That is all.
Technology ETF (XLK)
The technology ETF broke out and for today support will be at the $70.40 level.
Acadia reported results that were mostly in line with expectations. Guidance for the year was a bit light at the mid-point. But nothing that I am concerned over. I think they are likely taking a much more conservative approach this year given the scale back of last years revenue guidance. More important will be the trail results scheduled for calendar 2019 with schizophrenia and dementia-related psychosis. I do believe that the positive MDD trail results from the fall suggest that Acadia will have success in the schizophrenia trials. Also, I like that the company appears to have scrapped its SPCD design for the next round of Phase 3 trials in MDD. I think given the results of data in Clarity it points to a good chance of a positive outcome for MDD. But there is a while to wait.
The stock still has a significant resistance level at $24, with a break out sending it to around $27. No change there. I do think the result, and the promise of these trials eventually get the stock moving. There is a reason the Bakers own 30%+ of the company.
Tesla was resilient yesterday despite another round of negative headlines about Elon Musk. It either means one of two things: The Musk premium has been removed from the stock, or the market doesn’t think the latest round of news matters. In a tweet, today Musk noted some Tesla news on Thursday at 5 pm. What that news is I have no idea? New model, new battery? I don’t know.
The stock has inadvertently moved outside of one of its many downtrends. Does that mean a move higher towards $320? Maybe. Let’s see what happens. The path to $333 is much harder now.
Netflix could be on the move today, as the stock continues to work its way through the triangle. A big move up or down is coming; I noted yesterday why I think it could rise.
JD and Qualcomm
I wrote up an article yesterday on why I thought JD.com could be heading towards $29. Why JD.Com’s Stock May Pop Following Results. I also noted how I saw more bullish activity in Qualcomm in a premium article. More Bullish Activity In Qualcomm
Careful with Blackberry here. The stock failed at resistance at the uptrend, and the stock could be creating a double top. I think at this point the risk is still to the downside. The run-up we have seen in the recent weeks I think may finally be over.
Have a great day and more later.
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results. February 27