A Glass Half Full or Glass Half Empty – The Fate of The Stock Market

This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.

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September 3 – Stock mentions – SPY, SQ, GE, AMZN, MSFT, ALXN

Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own MSFT

Looking For A Sign

The past few weeks have been incredibly trying. You can look at the glass as half full and half empty, and in both cases, an observer could find plenty to support either view.

An observer of a glass half full could argue that despite all the negative headlines the market has held steady, and has remained resilent. An observer that sees a glass half empty could point to the index’s inability to rise above 2935 on multiple occasions.

The part that is so difficult to grasp is what happens next. Generally speaking, I have a good sense of direction when it comes to the broader market. But lately, I feel I have lost my way. I can not determine the movement in the market, and that makes me incredibly uneasy. Why does it make anxious? Because I know the next move in the market will be a move that sends it sharply higher or lower.

So patiently I resign myself to the fact, that looking for clues and subtleties are not easy to find. However, when looking abroad instead of finding markets that are breaking down, I’m finding markets that appear to be improving. It leaves me feeling cautiously optimistic that the summer doldrum will pass and a period of higher prices await. However, we need to remain patient for the markets next signal. I explain more in my premium service video: Looking To Intl Markets For Guidance

S&P 500, kospi

S&P 500 (SPX)

The three-ring circus continues with the S&P 500 on September 3 refilling a gap from last week. If the current pattern holds, and the trend continues to rise, then an ascending triangle is forming, which leads us to the big break out at 2935. However, if the trend doesn’t hold, and the index breaks the uptrend, then the index will fall and retest 2825.  Premium content: Stocks Slipping On Weak ISM

S&P 500, spy


When you are off, your off. Even with the markets sharp decline, GE still managed advance. Unreal.  The last line of defense until an increase to $8.80 is around $8.40.  GE’s Declines May Only Be Starting


Square (SQ)

Square is looking very weak recently, and very close to a big break down that could send SQ much lower perhaps to around $52.

square, sq

Amazon (AMZN)

Amazon got a big price target boost from RBC, and the stock outperformed. But again, Amazon failed at resistance at $1800, another stock that can’t get itself moving higher.

Amazon, amzn

Microsoft (MSFT)

I re-drew the Microsoft chart slightly today. It doesn’t matter much because there is nothing positive or negative forming here at this point. Resistance and support remain unchanged.

microsoft, msft It was a sea of red on September 3, and trying to understand where the market goes next has become an impossible task for bull or bear.

Alexion (ALXN)

Alexion is at a do or die moment, with the potential for shares to fall to roughly $85.

alexion, alxn It was a sea of red on September 3, and trying to understand where the market goes next has become an impossible task for bull or bear.

That is all for today.

Until tomorrow.


Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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