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The Art Of Valuing Netflix- Mott Capital Daily Market Recap

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The Art Of Valuing Netflix- Mott Capital Daily Market Recap

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Netflix Rant

Netflix shares continue to jump higher since last week when we noted the substantial break out in the stock.  The stock rose by nearly 5 percent on the day and finished the day over $201. We noted on December 28, how the stock appeared to have broken and it sure did today. The stock got an upgrade today from Macquarie, who put a price target of $220 per share on the stock.

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These are the type of upgrades you have to love. Now I didn’t read the full report, but I read the notes like the one linked above, but is it possible that the market JUST realized Netflix is years ahead of its peers? It is a “no duh” moment. There is no streaming platform on par with Netflix currently, none. Amazon has the look and feels of the minor league, while Hulu can’t even catch my attention.

Price Target?

The price target is another point of craziness. How can you value Netflix, a company that is reshaping the media landscape, and the viewing habits of consumers? I could not tell you how much Netflix should be worth. What I can tell you, is that if Netflix continues to grow its subscribers globally, and continues to create the content, it has now, like Ozark, the Crown, and Stranger Things, or can find shows like Frontier, then it should be worth a lot more in 5 or 10 years times.

The impact Netflix is having on consumer habits and the media landscape, can’t be modeled because it has never been done before.


To the tune of competition, there is no competition, because watching content is not a “zero-sum game.” Do you have only HBO or do you have HBO and Showtime? Do you have just ABC or do you ABC and NBC. Netflix is another choice

I find watching Netflix on my iPad to be the best viewing experience, with my headsets in. I can watch what I want in my bed, in a chair, at the gym, wherever The headset drowns out all the distraction from the outside and lets you get into the show. The screen is not an issue either if you hold it at the right distance.

The day that 5G rolls out is the day the broadband connection to your home and wifi likely die. But we can get into that topic another day.

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S&P 500

The S&P 500 increased by about 75 bps and finished the day at 2,694.41. The S&P 500 continues to look strong here, and it appears the market is getting ready to turn higher, and move up and beyond 2,700 on a technical basis.

spx by Scorpio244 on TradingView.com

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The Biotech ETF rose by nearly 2.5 percent and has now escaped the grip of resistance at $107. It struggled mightly at that level, but now with the ETF trading at almost $109.50, it seems well on its way back to about $114.

ibbIn our latest premium video, I discuss exactly why I think the Biotech stocks may very well, be the performing group in 2018.

Biotech May Outperform in 2018 from Michael Kramer on Vimeo.



Tesla shares appear to have broken out, ahead of what could be a critical day for the company. Tomorrow should be the day, we find out how many Model 3 were delivered, and maybe, a longshot maybe what the pace of production per week is.

The chart below show how Tesla cleared key resistance at the $319 level. tesla

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Amazon Seller?

Look at this chart on Amazon, notice anything? I’m wondering if the seller in Amazon, is the same shop that was selling Netflix, because it appears clear as day, that there is a seller lurking in this stock around the $1,192 price. As if picking an oddball limit would camouflage them.  Since December 15 the stock has risen above 1,192, for now, the third time, and each time, the stock can’t break through.

It looks like someone is just leaning on the shares, and once that seller “cleans up”, it seems like Amazon follows in Netflix’s footsteps.


That’s gonna be all. Until Tomorrow.

Read Our 10 Monster Predictions For 2018

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Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of NFLX, TSLA

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags: #Netflix #tesla #amazon #stocks #biotech #sp500