This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
Otherwise, enjoy the column!
Subscribe to the Monster Stock Market Commentary and join the 1,834 subscribers getting it for FREE every day!
Could Netflix Move Into Music? The Daily Rundown
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN SHARES OF nFLX AND TSLA
I thought Netflix may have broken out early in the day but was unable to hold the gains. It has a solid uptrend in place, and the RSI certainly looks like it too is ready to breakout.
I have been thinking a little bit about Netflix and wondering if it makes sense for them to get into a music service. They have 125 million subscribers, and maybe for an extra $5 a month they can bundle in a streaming music service. The Netflix app is already on my phone, making it easy to likely get conversions.
Yes, the streaming music space is getting crowded, but how many people would gladly pay $20 a month for music and content. I’m sure a lot.
Doing some back of the envelope math, even if you consider the 55 million US subscribers, and a conversion rate of 30 percent, it could easily add about $250 million in extra revenue a quarter, and just further solidify the company’s dominance, in streaming media.
It was a pretty quiet day all around, stocks couldn’t build any positive momentum all day long, and the sellers just came in at the end of the day. When it comes down to it, the S&P 500 was only down about 30 bps, certainly nothing to fret over, and refilling some of the gap created yesterday.
Industrials had a great day yesterday, and today we gave back a portion of that significant gain. Again, some investors blame trade tension; I blame the Algo’s playing a game of fill the gap.
The same thing happened with Boeing.
The setup in the chip stocks still looks strong.
Micron has a lot to do with the chips being strong; the stock jumped by about 6.5 percent today. But, be mindful of that gap, just like the other charts above show us. A fall back to $56 or even $54 is entirely possible.
Tesla certainly has an unusual setup, with the stock sitting at support around $272, while the RSI continues to trend lower. It is the stock that everyone loves to hate. It needs to find a bounce off this support level. Otherwise, things might get difficult for the longs. The short interest as of April 30 was at the highest level ever in the stock’s history at 39 million.
Now on to some boring, but very important stuff
The dollar index has stopped rising for now, and where the dollar goes can have ramification on other parts of the market. For now, it struggles around $94, and should it break above $94, then is going to be a significant problem for commodities and multinational stocks. Should it managed to reverse and head lower, that is going to help fuel Oil rise even higher.
The Eurodollar deposit rate is perhaps telling us that demand for dollars abroad may be easing, and that may be a sign that the recent rise in the dollar is nearing an end. Back on March 20, I speculated that the rising Eurodollar rates were a sign the US dollar would begin to surge, and indeed since that time, the dollar index has climbed from 90.50 to a high of 94 yesterday, a climb of about 3.8 percent. So indeed, we should pay attention to the cost to borrow dollars aboard.
For the most to think we are in a low inflation environment with strong earnings growth and a robust economy. Hard for me to bearish in this type of situation, I continue to see more and more signs of sectors breaking out, and individual stocks as well. Outside of some unforeseen geopolitical event, I think the most significant risk to the economy and the markets is an over aggressive Fed. Nothing would make me happier than the Fed to leave things alone at this point.
That is it for today.
Free Articles Written By Mike:
Join our 1,834 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.
© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC. Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.
Tags: #netflix #music #tesla #sp500 #industrials #boeing #dollar #eurodollar #libor