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The Bears struck hard today and took it right to the heart of the bulls and for the first time they caved. The bids dried up, and the Bears pressed, and the Bulls folded like a paper cup. The amazing thing is that the rhetoric today was not that much different than yesterday, but the reaction was much deeper, with risk coming off the table, and the VIX surge to over 16. While Bond and the Dollar hardly moved, and a Japan that is flat to this point.
So was just a run of the mill 2 percent sell-off like the ones we have been getting since the beginning of June? Or is this something different? Today’s sell-off resemblance to the previous sell-offs, but was blamed on rising geopolitical tensions. Someone forget to tell the Bonds and Currency market because yields hardly moved, while the Dollar which has been on the brink of a major sell-off didn’t crack or strengthen. A typical flight to safety fear trade involves the buying of safe-haven assets, bonds, the Dollar, and Gold!
Gold hardly moved too, up only nine bucks to $1286. Maybe everyone was moving into Bitcoin? Nope….
If this was truly a North Korea rising tension sell-off why did the safe haven asset hardly move?
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Now we can add in Tesla and JP Morgan, not quite the same.
If this was a genuine risk off trade, why was Tesla just not drilled today? It could leave one to believe that once again we had the machines driving prices lower like we have seen before.
The Yen did strengthen today moving lower to around 109.
Asia – Japan, Hong Kong, & South Korea
If you want to know how much the tension are rising just watch the Asian markets; Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea, those are the markets most likely to be affect by any actions, and those are the markets that are going to move.
…and most of all the Japanese 10 year BOND, which has hardly moved to this point.
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Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of GOOGL, NFLX, TSLA
Disclaimer: Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendation made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.