This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
Otherwise, enjoy the column!
Subscribe to the Monster Stock Market Commentary and join the 2,365 subscribers getting it for FREE every day!
FANG Stocks May Be In Big Trouble – The Daily Recap
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN SHARES OF NFLX, MO, VZ, GOOGL
It has been the quarter of surprises. First, it was Netflix; then it was Facebook, now it was Nvidia. Nvidia! The company that hasn’t guided down a quarter in almost three years! OMG. I’m sure there will be a lot of commentary around Nvidia, and it may even be down big tomorrow. But let’s face facts here folks. The company grew earnings per share by 92 percent y/y, on revenue growth of 40 percent.
For the fiscal third quarter, it guided to revenue of $3.25 billion, versus analysts estimates of $3.33 billion. Meanwhile, non-GAAP gross margins guidance goes to 62.8 percent, that is down from 63.3 percent this quarter.
It doesn’t feel like a complete disaster to me. But it also comes down to expectations and the market, quite frankly, isn’t used to this from Nvidia and has been spoiled. The stock is not cheap and is priced to grow, with a one-year forward PE ratio of nearly 29, that is roughly double the average of most chip companies.
We’ll have to see where the stock opens tomorrow, but support now is around $235, and then $217.
Anyway, moving on stocks moved higher today, with the S&P 500 rising by nearly 80 bps, but I will not be happy until it clears 2,853, and for now, that hasn’t happened yet. In fact, the index failed right at resistance, so we need to a clean break out tomorrow. I’m not sure that happens on a Friday in the middle of August.
FANG Stocks In Trouble
Thes FANG stocks (minus the G) aren’t looking so good these days., and are looking somewhat troubled. I talked about it in my subscriber video today, breaking down what I’m watching and how I catch these little trends. Trouble Ahead For FANG Stocks?
Facebook has had a terrible few days, and that continued today with the stock down by nearly 3 percent. I think there is more downside here, probably a retest of $166 is now in the works.
Amazon also failed at resistance, and that rising wedge is beginning to look problematic. I did a video and talked about Amazon yesterday. Amazon May Plunge 10%
Netflix is holding by a thread at support around $323.
Where is the money flowing? I’m growing more convinced it moving into the staples. Look at the chart of P&G; you’d think this was the newest high flying technology company.
Meanwhile, Altria is also starting to move higher. $64 to $65 seems within sight.
Look at Pfizer.
So you do not have to be a genius to realize all these companies have a few things in common. They are all low beta and high yielding. You think there is rotation happening? I do not believe this necessarily a bad thing; it may even be healthy for the markets longer term.
Have you seen Verizon lately? The stock is at nearly a multi-high! Two things are going on here in my opinion. The first are the reasons mentioned above, and second, 5G is coming. I think 5G changes a lot of things and opens technology to a whole new level. I like Verizon over the other carriers for this reason.
That it for today!
Ok, so now that I am starting to actively self-promote myself, I’m asking you to please support me and check out my member’s area. I priced the service to be cheap because, honestly I’m trying to make some money from it, but also to help investors learn. Members can post questions, and I usually get back to them in less than 12 hours through the chat feature or the messaging feature on the platform, I also post answers in videos showing you how I do the work.
I run the service through Seeking Alpha because they have a good operation and provide all the technology. Email notifications, chat room, comment sections, etc.
It is $200 a year or $25 a month. Right now you can get two weeks for free, and introductory 20 percent off. If you do not like it cancel it, no big deal, no feeling hurt. Thanks!
Here are some of the recent videos:
Read Our Sponsors Material:
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.
#SP500 #FANG #FACEBOOK #AMAZON #NETFLIX #PROCTER #ALTRIA #VERIZON