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October 30, 2020
Stocks – SQ, AMD, NFLX
Macro – SPY
- De-Risking Friday
- Big Options Bets Going On
- MCM Thematic Growth 3Q’20 Investor Letter
- Are Yields Going To Explode Higher?
- Double Top Alert -Midday
It was a pretty brutal day. If not for a last-minute surge, the indexes would have been down at least by another 1%. Still, the S&P 500 finished the day lower by 1.2%, while the NASDAQ 100 QQQ finished lower by 2.5%. More surprising was that yields were higher, rising to 87 bps on the 10-year, while the dollar index was basically flat.
S&P 500 (SPY)
We came very close to testing the confirmation zone for the double top pattern on the S&P 500. But we managed to avoid it. It was strange because I think more than anything, with earnings over, all those short-term call options that were out of the money basically collapsed, and that left dealers to unwind their hedges. That certainly didn’t help the matter.
Additionally, there appeared to be a broad derisking taking place in the market, as evidenced by yields rising, the dollar going sideways, and the S&P 500 dropping. There is a possibility we trade lower from here, to perhaps the 2,800 to 2,900 range on the S&P 500.
Also, we saw a steep decline in Netflix, which was surprising given it rose sharply yesterday when it announced it would raise subscription prices. Still, the stock gave it all back today. That $475 region is like a rock; the falling RSI suggests it goes lower, but to this point, no such luck.
Square got hit hard because Twitter got rocked. I really don’t buy that. But anyway, the stock broke its long-term uptrend, and I see that as a big negative. This stock could have a long way to drop should things get worse—a long way.
AMD’s moment of truth likely comes next week, with the stock going out sitting on support at $75.
Back tomorrow with a special edition
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