This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own Apple, Tesla, and Netflix
March 1, 2019
- S&P 500 +16.7 points
- 10-Year Treasury 2.73%
- Oil $57.33 +0.19%
- VIX 14.43
- Japan Nikkei +1.02%
- China Shanghai +1.80%
- Hong Kong HSI +0.63%
- Singapore STI +0.24%
- South Korea Kospi Closed
- Australia ASX +0.38%
- German DAX +1.03%
- UK FTSE +0.44%
Global Growth Proxies
- Copper$2.96 +0.32%
- Silver $15.75 -0.38%
- Platinum $868.10 -0.81%
- US PMI Manufacturing Index: Prior level 54.9
- German PMI Manufacturing Index: 47.6 vs. 49.7 last month
- German Retail Sales +3.3% vs. estimates of 2.0%
- China PMI Manufacturing Index: 49.9 vs. 48.3 last
The German DAX is breaking out and is rising above key resistance at 11,535. The next level to watch in the index is 11,891. The DAX was one of the last indexes to break out, yet another positive sign. I will update global markets over the weekend.
If you haven’t read the Chicago PMI release from yesterday, I urge you to read it. Here is a snippet:
The pick-up in demand contributed the most to the Barometer’s rise. New orders rose by 15.2 points, the largest monthly rise since January 2016 when it jumped 17.4 points. Production was up 8.5 points to a fresh six-month high. Order Backlogs were up by 5.6 points, offsetting January’s decline.
I don’t know, does that sounds like we are heading to a recession anytime soon? Not to me, but we will get further confirmation when we see today’s readings.
S&P 500 (SPY)
As noted last night, the S&P 500 is gearing up for a breakout today, and that is precisely what the futures are pointing to now. The SPY ETF is suggesting a rise over 2,800 on the S&P 500, and that means that resistance at 2,812 may come into play today.
A break out above 2,812 sends the index on to 2,872.
Tesla is sinking today after the big 5 PM announcement of the base model 3, and prospects for a loss in the first quarter. I don’t think much really changed here. The stock is trading lower to around $304. But the good news is that at this point there is a sign of a new uptrend forming. While the stock is failing at the downtrend on the first attempt, I do expect that downtrend to be broken at some point over the next week or so.
Apple continues to advance, and it continues to work its way higher towards $182.
Netflix is pointing to a slight increase today, and as long as the stock can stay above $355, there is hope that the stock can continue to climb. But like I said last night a drop below $355 spells trouble for this stock. So we need to watch this one closely.
Amazon is now starting to rise, and perhaps we finally begin to see that push towards $1780 I had thought at the beginning of the week. That isn’t going to happen today though.
The big question for Square now is what is next now that the stock has reached $83. A rise above $83 can send the stock to $91. But the stock is getting overbought, so I think there is a really good chance we just see the stock trade sideways and consolidate a bit.
Alibaba has cleared some key resistance at $180, and it does set up the chance for the stock to rise towards $201.
PayPal continues to go higher and appears to be heading towards $101.
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