MARCH 13, 2020

STOCKS  – NONE

MACRO – SPY, GLD, VIX

READING THE MARKET PREMIUM CONTENT:

• Not Out Of The Woods Yet, Risks Remain Elevated
• Relief Rally – Morning Commentary 3.13.20
• Is A Massive U-Turn Coming? Earnings Model Update

Anyway, stocks went up today, I forgot what that was even like. Will it last? Who knows. I was just happy to see some green on my screen after a freakin brutal week. I was talking to a friend in town this afternoon, as we stood an equidistant 6 feet apart from one another, I noted next week wasn’t going to be easy. After all, what was support on the way down, becomes resistance on the way up, and that means our friend at 2,730 is now a problem.

But, hey, there is good news in this story because we did finally break that nasty downtrend. However, I do not think we get out of this one 2019 style and rally in a straight line off the lows.

The one reason I still have concerns is that the VIX hasn’t fallen very far and is still above 50. That is too high, and although the uptrend is broken, we need it to get it below 50.

Gold is breaking down, and that is also good. You know, some years ago, I was talking to a friend of mine about gold and why I was not too fond of it. He noted that during a crisis, you want to have gold. My answer, how do we know that during the next crisis, there wouldn’t be a flight to toilet paper. It turns out; I may have been right. :).

Anyway, that will be all for today.

You might as well rest up while you can, Monday may be interesting.

Look it has to get better at some point right? Think about it like this, if the S&P 500 falls 200 points every week, in about 3 months there would be nothing left to sell because the index would be at zero.

Cheer up, it will get better. You really want to bet against the market in the long-run. Just don’t look at the part between 1929 and 1931. Otherwise, we’re good.

You know what’s interesting in that chart, nah, forget. I mean how could the Dow Jones have increased 86% between 1917 and 1920, couldn’t be, not with the Spanish Flu and all.

-Mike