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Job Growth in the US appears to be on the verge of reaccelerating. Look at the ADP data vs. BLS y/y change.
We can see that ADP job growth is accelerating higher. ADP numbers typically lead BLS numbers.
BLS will likely follow ADP growth higher as well. Atlanta Fed GDP Now is forecasting 2Q’17 GDP growth of 3.4 percent.
Economic growth in is improving in the US. The yield curve is flattening because the Fed is raising rates as the economy improves. As this happens the yield curve will flatten and continue to flatten. It is only when the market views rate cuts coming that the yield curve will widen.
Look at past cycles.
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Michael Kramer is the Founder and Portfolio Manager of Mott Capital Management LLC, a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendation made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.