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September 23, 2020
STOCKS – TSLA, AMZN, PYPL
Macro – SPY, QQQ, EWY
Mike’s Reading The Markets (RTM) Premium Content – NOW WITH A 2 WEEK FREE TRIAL
- Stock Mount Weak Rally, Watch For Afternoon Fade- Midday
- Dead Cat Bounce – Morning
- This Is A Different Sell-Off
- The Market Has Little To Support It
- The Second Leg Lower – Morning
- 10 THEMES FOR THE WEEK OF SEPTEMBER 21
- Nvidia May Drop 15% More
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN TESLA
Today is a rather important day for the market because it will tell us if we have further to recover or if we are about to take another sharp leg lower.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The SPY is trading a touch higher in the pre-market, about 34 bps, and complete whatever is left of the gap filll from Monday’s drop. Typically once a gap gets filled, it results in the continuation of the previous trend, which has been lower. However, a breach of $332.90 likely results in a further push higher to $342.25, and retest of that break down from last week.
South Korea (EWY)
It was a wild night in South Korea, with the index rising by 90 basis points to start the night, then fell sharply, by nearly 3%, until to finish the day flat. Please don’t ask me what went over there, but that is massive volality.
Tesla (TSLA)
Tesla is falling this morning after Battery Day. I watched some of it, not all of it. The company essentially reiterated guidance for the year around 500,000, give or take. The stock is trading lower, and I’m not sure if it is because the low-end of the range for guidance is shy of the 500,000 or because much of what I saw was focused on things that aren’t likely to result in anything soon. Either way, the stock has struggled at $440 and should find some support at around $390.
PayPal (PYPL)
PayPal broke a short-term downtrend and has some room to rise to around $198.
Amazon (AMZN)
Amazon has been pushing higher in the pre-market, and there appears to be some more room to rise, perhaps to around $3,160, before resuming lower.
Anyway, I will leave with this last thing to think about. I found this to be stunning and shocking. I hope this turns out to be wrong, by the way. It is a chart of today’s Nasdaq 100 overlayed with the NASDAQ 100 in late 1999.
But here is the amazing are part:
From the March 2020 lows, the NASDAQ rose about 84% over 163 days.
Meanwhile, from the November 1999 break out to the peak, the NASDAQ 100 rose about 86% over 151 days. I don’t know, maybe it is just chance, but still awfully strange.
I guess we are going to find out soon whether the similarities end there.
I had too much free time on hands last night, I guess.
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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