Its Fed Day And That’s A Big Deal For The Stock Market

This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.

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June 10, 2020

STOCKS – XOM, CVX, CSCO

MACRO – SPY, DOLLAR

Mike Reading The Markets Premium Content – $35/Month or $300/Year

Stocks have been bouncing around overnight, with the futures up and now down. Meanwhile, shares in Europe are all down slightly. But none of this matters at the moment because everything is likely to change later today after the FOMC meeting. 

Again, I don’t envy Jay Powell, as he has an incredibly tough job, and his day will not be easy. He has come a long way since that December 2018 meeting that saw the market meltdown during his press conference. I’m not suggesting the same happens today, because I have no clue, but what he has to say is very important. Also, what will be important are those dot plots, and what the Fed sees for the rate of recovery for the US economy. 

Remember, this is a quarterly meeting, so there are a few extra details that will come out today, that we usually don’t get. So will the Fed project a “V,” “U,” “L,” or “checkmark” recovery?

Watch the Yen. It tells a story.

YEN

S&P 500 (SPY)

S&P 500 futures stalled out for the second day in a row around 3230. Keep an eye on support at 3,190; if it breaks, it forms a short-term double top that could result in a decline to 3120. 

s&P 500 futures

DAX 

The German DAX is also at an important support level at 12,400. 

Dollar

The dollar continues to decline and is sitting on support at 96. That is a significant level. 

Cisco (CSCO)

Cisco was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Baird; the firm keeps a $48 price target. The stock has recovered nicely, but it does find some strong resistance that appears to be reasonably healthy around $48.25, with potential room to rise to $50.25, and a gap fill.

Exxon (XOM)

Exxon is falling today, along with the price of oil. I noted the other day some bearish options betting in this one, with the potential to fall back to around $50, and even as low as $48. Premium content –  Exxon’s Recent Surge May Fade Fast

exxon

Chevron (CVX)

Chevron doesn’t appear to be all that different with support around $87.50.

Anyway, that’s all for today. I have to get out early today. 

-Mike

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.    

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