March 20, 2020
Stocks – None
Macro – SPY, VIX
Reading The Markets Premium Content –
- Economic Outlook Darkens Quickly
- Reaching For Dollars – Midday 3.19.20
- Morning Commentary- Economic Conditions Worsen
Well, it wasn’t a significant point gain or loss, but that doesn’t mean it wasn’t volatile today. From high to low, the S&P 500 covered 6.25%, which is just a massive trading range for a single day. The only good piece of news is that the S&P 500 didn’t make a new low today.
Interestingly tomorrow is Friday, and that means it could be a wild day. Do you know what is extra special about this Friday? Oh, but of course, it is quadruple witching, and that means volatility should be insanely high.
I’m not sure what is going on at the 2,450 level, but the S&P 500 could not get above it today, and I’m not so sure that it is a positive sign these days. The index appears to have just settled in around the 2,405 to 2,450 level today, and I’m not sure if this was a false sense of security leading up to tomorrow.
I wouldn’t be surprised to test the lows again at some point. Perhaps tomorrow or perhaps next.
Russell 2000 (IWM)
The Russell rallied 6% today, and while it broke the downtrend, it is hard to know if it will stick or not. There is resistance at 1,085, and we will have to see what happens tomorrow.
The VIX still up over 70, and will not come down.
The dollar index has gone parabolic, rising to around 103. It just shows how much demand there is to get hands-on dollars around the world.
The cost to borrow dollars is soaring too, with 3-month eurodollar rates soaring to around 72 basis points.
Meanwhile, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year as exploded as well to 70 basis points.
Also, initial jobless claims ran-up by 70,0000 to 280,000!
Meanwhile, the current business conditions for NY and Philly Fed collapsed.
With all this crazy stuff going on, I find it hard to think things are going to settle down anytime soon; tomorrow will be no exception.
That’s going to be all for today. I’m just tired and need a break from this stuff.
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