Mott Capital Management

Join this channel to get access to perks:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIIr1ooRsSukPL7rKNr0VHQ/join

Please check out my content on Substack and Seeking Alpha:
https://www.navigatingthemarket.com/
https://seekingalpha.com/mp/1076-reading-the-markets/

• Gamma, not fundamentals, drove Friday’s rally. The move higher was largely mechanical as dealers adjusted hedges in a negative gamma regime.
• Volatility fell for technical reasons, not risk resolution. The drop in the VIX reflected index gains and an implied volatility reset, not a meaningful reduction in forward risk.
• Liquidity drains and macro events complicate the path ahead. Treasury settlements and major economic reports raise the odds of renewed volatility after Monday.



This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

Join this channel to get access to perks:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIIr1ooRsSukPL7rKNr0VHQ/join

Please check out my content on Substack and Seeking Alpha:
https://www.navigatingthemarket.com/

Liquidity continues to be drained from the system, primarily through Treasury issuance and rising TGA balances, putting pressure on risk assets.

Bitcoin and other liquidity-sensitive assets are signaling stress, and historically, they tend to lead broader equity markets lower.

Market structure looks increasingly fragile, with leverage, options, and ETFs amplifying moves and raising the risk of cascading declines.

Silver's implied volatility hit crazy levels.


This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

Join this channel to get access to perks:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIIr1ooRsSukPL7rKNr0VHQ/join

Please check out my content on Substack and Seeking Alpha:
https://www.navigatingthemarket.com/
https://seekingalpha.com/affiliate_link/Youtube81624

We're deep into the current earning season, which is also a prime time for volatility dispersion. The vol dispersion trade is actively underway and we anticipate it will start to unwind by mid-week. This period involves significant implied volatility shifts and offers insights into market analysis, especially with major tech companies reporting soon.


This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

Join this channel to get access to perks:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIIr1ooRsSukPL7rKNr0VHQ/join

Please check out my content on Substack and Seeking Alpha:
https://www.navigatingthemarket.com/
https://seekingalpha.com/affiliate_link/Youtube81624


Treasury rates moved notably higher Friday afternoon, with the most pronounced pressure concentrated in the five-, seven-, and ten-year sectors, as the ten-year yield broke out of the trading channel it had held since mid-December. The move appeared to coincide less with speculation around potential Federal Reserve leadership changes and more with renewed attention on the U.S. Treasury’s quarterly refunding process, particularly discussion around restructuring the seven-year note auction calendar. Seven-year yields rose by more than five basis points, compared with a three-basis-point increase in the two-year, suggesting the move was driven more by issuance considerations than front-end policy expectations. This rate breakout occurred against a backdrop of historically compressed bond and equity volatility, with realized volatility in long-duration Treasurys near levels last seen in 2019. If yields continue to move higher and volatility begins to expand, implied volatility across bonds—and potentially equities and credit—would likely rise as well, increasing the risk that the current period of sideways consolidation in equities gives way to more persistent choppiness.



This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

Join this channel to get access to perks:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIIr1ooRsSukPL7rKNr0VHQ/join

Please check out my content on Substack and Seeking Alpha:
https://www.navigatingthemarket.com/
https://seekingalpha.com/affiliate_link/Youtube81624

On Friday, the S&P 500 (spx) rose by approximately 65 basis points, a movement primarily influenced by a decrease in implied volatility in stock market after the job report. The market also reacted to the anticipation of a Supreme Court decision regarding Trump tariffs, which led to some hedging activity. Understanding these market dynamics is essential for effective investing and managing your finance.

This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

Join this channel to get access to perks:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIIr1ooRsSukPL7rKNr0VHQ/join

Please check out my content on Substack and Seeking Alpha:
https://www.navigatingthemarket.com/
https://seekingalpha.com/affiliate_link/Youtube81624

The bond market is signaling a possible shift toward higher long-end rates, with technical patterns suggesting that 30-year yields could accelerate toward the 5 percent region. Liquidity remains tight despite temporary easing from Treasury paydowns, leaving funding markets sensitive ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting. If forward rate structures continue firming, markets may begin pricing in a higher policy-rate path for 2026, challenging expectations for aggressive easing.

This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

Join this channel to get access to perks:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIIr1ooRsSukPL7rKNr0VHQ/join

Please check out my content on Substack and Seeking Alpha:
https://www.navigatingthemarket.com/
https://seekingalpha.com/affiliate_link/Youtube81624

The video highlights a week where aggressive volatility selling overshadowed expected equity weakness from Treasury settlement pressures. Liquidity conditions tightened meaningfully, with repo rates rising and increased usage of the Standing Repo Facility signaling stress.

This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

Join this channel to get access to perks:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIIr1ooRsSukPL7rKNr0VHQ/join

Please check out my content on Substack and Seeking Alpha:
https://www.navigatingthemarket.com/
https://seekingalpha.com/affiliate_link/Youtube81624



This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

Join this channel to get access to perks:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIIr1ooRsSukPL7rKNr0VHQ/join

Please check out my content on Substack and Seeking Alpha:
https://www.navigatingthemarket.com/
https://seekingalpha.com/affiliate_link/Youtube81624

3 Takeaways
• Treasury settlements may pressure equities early in the week as liquidity is raised to meet nearly $60 billion in coupon and bill settlements.
• Widening CDS spreads across major tech and AI-linked firms signal increasing credit risk, which may drive multiple contraction and equity weakness.
• Tight overnight funding and low reserve balances suggest liquidity will stay constrained, limiting the market’s ability to absorb volatility or new issuance.




This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.


The video discusses recent increases in **stock market** volatility and how to implement a successful **trading strategy**. It also explains how **technical analysis** can be used for **investing** in **stocks**. The content further explains the impacts of **liquidity** and market opportunities on your **finance**.