This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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Stocks: CSCO, NFLX, DIS, AMZN, SHOP, ROKU
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN CSCO, DIS, NFLX
S&P 500 (SPY)
Stocks had a pretty dull day once again, with the S&P 500 finishing flat at 3,094. But if I had told you that during the middle of the day there were negative headlines about US/China trade, you might have expected the market to have been down. However, the market doesn’t seem to react these days anymore to negative headlines, just shrugging it off.
We also had Powell testimony and the public impeaching hearings, nothing mattered.
It could suggest that the market is looking past a trade deal, believes that either way a deal eventually happens, or that it no longer believes that a trade deal is all that harmful to the market. It also could be suggesting that the market simple sees better days ahead for earnings and the economy regardless. Either way, it seems to be a positive sign. It is a different message then from prior months.
Cisco reported some very dissappointing results, beating on the top and bottom lines, but giving horrible guidance. This is a conference call I will need to review. The stock has to hold the $46 region.
Disney jumped to a new all-time high today, even touching $150. The stock’s strong performance came following news that the new Disney+ streaming app had more than 10 million subscribers on its first day. I have said before I think the stock goes to the $175-180 region at some point in the not to distance future.
Of course, Netflix fell on the day because of Disney’s success. I guess the thinking here is that 10 million subscribers canceled their Netflix subscription yesterday? I highly doubt that. I highly doubt anybody did, especially right before the giant content slate that is scheduled in the fourth quarter.
Of course, the stock fell on the day that I noted in a premium article I thought the stock was breaking out on a large option bet. The good news is that stock is holding in a region of critical support.
Premium content – Netflix May Be Heading For A Break Out
Roku also went up on the day. Why I will never understand. Maybe it is that residual revenue it gets from the Disney+ sign-ups. Does it say anywhere by the way what Roku’s cut is? I’m not sure; I will have to look through their filings to see how much they make from these sign-ups.
Now the stock is at the downtrend; it will get interesting tomorrow. You can hear me rant about the very topic in my mid-day update. Disney’s Surge, Netflix Purge
Shopify is trying to break out, and if it can get over $315, perhaps it moves to $330.
Amazon looks as if it may be starting to breakdown. $1700 becomes a significant level of support for the stock. Based on the RSI, the momentum appears to be leaving the stock.
Have a good one
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.