Nvidia, Disney, Roku Earnings Preview For the Week of May 7

Nvidia, Disney, Roku Earnings Preview For the Week of May 7

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Nvidia, Disney, Roku Earnings Preview For the Week of May 7

Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of DIS, GOOGL, AAPL, MA, and TSLA

Earnings Scorecard for this blog :

Week of April 23: 1 Right (MSFT), 4 Wrong (GOOGL, FB, AMD, AMZN)

Week of April 30: 1 Right (MA), 3 Wrong (AAPL, SQ, TSLA)

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The scores above are for the blog only, because for some reason my calls on Investopedia have been much better. I couldn’t tell you why, but that is just the way it goes. So I’m sure there are plenty of people that will make comments, and laugh at my miserable results. But that is ok, I’m a big boy, and I have been doing this long enough to know even the best have a slump.

Batter Up!

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Earnings this

Earnings continue this week with Nvidia, Disney, and Roku slated to report results. Disney reporting Tuesday, followed by Roku on Wednesday, and Nvidia on Thursday.  This will be the final week of earnings predictions.

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Nvidia

Nvidia has put together another solid year rather quietly, perhaps because most of the significant gains occurred through the middle of March. But the stock is higher by over 23 percent on the year, much better than the broader S&P 500’s flat returns.

NVDA Chart

NVDA data by YCharts

Analyst Estimates

Analysts are looking for revenue to have grown by 48.63 percent during the fiscal first-quart of 2019 to $2.88 billion. Meanwhile, earnings are expected to have risen by 94 percent to $1.65 per share, monster growth numbers for a company that’s growth rate never seem to slow.  But more importantly will be how the company guides the coming quarter because analysts are looking for total revenue of $2.946 billion, a rise of 50 percent, while earnings are seen climbing by nearly 63 percent to 1.64 per share. Massive growth rates, for this company especially given the monster growth rates of the past. Pay close attention to data center growth that may be key.

Earnings History

The company has not missed on the top or bottom line since April of 2016 and has beaten analysts earnings estimates by an average of 20 percent, with a standard deviation of 10 percent. Meanwhile, revenue has beaten estimates by an average of 8 percent with a standard deviation of 6 percent. Pretty good odds that Nvidia once again crushes those estimates.

NVDA Quarterly Actual EPS Chart

NVDA Quarterly Actual EPS data by YCharts

Being A Bear Doesn’t Pay

Over the past year and a half, I have been relatively bearish on Nvidia, and wrong. Although I have from a trading standpoint, I have gone back and forth. But overall, I have been very impressed by the companies ability to grow into its valuation.  The market usually over-optimistic and tends to overvalue story such as Nvidia, but in this case, Nvidia has been able to deliver.

Technicals

The stock tricked me about a week ago, when it fell below support at $217, but bounced back quickly. It has now convincingly broken out, rising above its downtrend on the stock price, and the relative strength index. Climbing back to the highs around $253 seems possible after results.

nvidia

Options

The options market has an implied volatility of 65 percent for the options set to expire in 7 days, and that equates to a range of 9 percent up or down, a big move.

nvidia

Surprisingly or not the options set to expire May 18 have the most significant open interest at the $235 strike price, with 34,000 open calls to 33,000 open puts. That means it is anyone’s guess which way Nvidia goes after results.

Overall, it seems like a rise back to around $250 following what should be strong results, would not be surprising.

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Disney

Disney is expected to report that fiscal second-quarter earnings climbed by 13.25 percent to $1.70, while revenue is seen rising by 5.8 percent to $14.11 billion. Disney’s history on reporting results, is not nearly as consistent as Nvidia, with Disney beating earnings by an average of only 2 percent, with a standard deviation of 7 percent, while revenue misses estimates on average by 2 percent with a standard deviation of 1 percent, Yikes! That does not bode well for the upcoming results this week

DIS Quarterly Revenue Estimates Chart

DIS Quarterly Revenue Estimates data by YCharts

Options

The options set for expiration in a week have an implied volatility of about 35 percent, and that suggests a rise or fall of about 4.85 percent, following results.

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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

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Dollar Dependent

Mott Capital's Market Chronicles 6 hours ago

Join this channel to get access to perks:https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIIr1ooRsSukPL7rKNr0VHQ/joinPlease check out my content on Substack and Seeking Alpha:https://www.themarketchronicle.com/https://seekingalpha.com/affiliate_link/Youtube81624This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment. 8:35

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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

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The Fed Put Is Dead For Now, But The Shadow Grows...Advanced Topics

Mott Capital's Market Chronicles April 16, 2025 7:07 PM

Join this channel to get access to perks:https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIIr1ooRsSukPL7rKNr0VHQ/joinPlease check out my content on Substack and Seeking Alpha:https://www.themarketchronicle.com/https://seekingalpha.com/affiliate_link/Youtube81624This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment. 6:31

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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

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Mott Capital's Market Chronicles April 16, 2025 2:08 PM

The options with the most significant open interest are the May $100 strike price, with roughly 31,000 open puts to 26,000 open calls, suggesting a slightly bearish bias after results.

Technicals

Disney’s has gone nowhere since the August of 2015, but the setup in the chart is one of the most bullish long-term structures around, and when Disney does breakout finally it will be a massive ride higher in the stock, likely easily surpassing the $120 level. I think for the stock it might simply be a matter of when.

In the interim, I think Disney could revert to the upper end of the range after results to about $110.

dis

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Roku

Finally, we will finish with Roku. The company is newly listed so there isn’t a whole lot of data to go off on this one. Analysts are looking for the company to report a loss of $0.15 per share, while revenue is seen at $127.55 million.

Options

Implied volatility is through the roof at 144 percent, meaning over the next seven days the stock could rise or fall by 20 percent! Huge!

The most significant levels of open are for expiration on June 15, and they are the $34 and $35 strike prices, with nearly 5,300 open calls at $34, and almost 3,000 open calls at $35. The $35 puts have about 2,900 open contracts. This one appears to be way more bullish than bearish and would suggest a rise above  $37 following results.

Technicals

The chart is relatively bullish too, with a firm bottom in place around $30, and rising RSI. The next significant level of resistance comes around $37.75 on the chart.

roku

The options and the chart suggest shares rise following results, but there isn’t enough to go on regarding earnings. So for this one, I think we do see a rise post results back to around $37.

 

That is all

Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags: #nvidia #disney #roku #earnings

 

 

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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.