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While today’s price action felt unstable and even a bit bizarre, in some ways it was, as noted yesterday, fairly predictable. Implied volatility levels on Wednesday night went out extremely high, and historically, when the VIX 1-day is elevated heading into an event, the market tends to experience a strong post-event rally once that event clears.
We had two major events lined up: the jobs report and NVIDIA’s results. The VIX 1-day closed yesterday at 26.9, which helped fuel the 1.9% rally into the 10:00–10:30 a.m. window.
The issue I highlighted yesterday was that the rally would only last until implied volatility stabilized and the cash drain took over. Today was a Treasury settlement day—not a large one at $18 billion, but given how much cash has already been taken out this month, each additional settlement appears to compound the pressure. So even though the size wasn’t huge, it still added to the tightening effect.
In other words, the ingredients for today’s move were already in place.
The severity of the reversal, however, was the part that surprised.
In some ways, what made things even worse was that NVIDIA was driving much of the early strength. The stock was up roughly 5%, but, as noted in last night’s write-up, NVIDIA was going to have a very tough time clearing the $195–$196 region. That played out exactly as expected once trading began. The $190 calls were up, but that probably prompted enough selling that the stock couldn’t break above $196, largely because of the huge gamma cluster around $195 and $200 and because it was sitting in a positive-gamma environment.
When you factor that in—along with all the higher-strike calls that were already deeply underwater—it felt like only a matter of time before the $190-and-above crowd began unwinding. Once NVIDIA started to roll over, that unwinding triggered a snowball effect. The $190 calls, which closed today at $0.34, were around $5.50 yesterday and, even during the strongest part of today’s session, were only worth about $7 for the first 30 minutes. As soon as those calls fell below $5 around 10:49 a.m., volume surged, and that was essentially the breaking point.
As for tomorrow, the VIX 1-day closed at 29 today, and I genuinely do not know why. It opened sharply lower, dropping to around 13, and then just reversed and took off. The only major event tomorrow is the November monthly options expiration, and that alone does not justify a VIX1D at 29. I don’t know if someone knows something or if there’s a mispricing somewhere, but something seems off. Volatility was up across the curve, but even then, this still looks odd.
There are plenty of other things we could talk about, but my crystal ball is out of juice. I’ll charge up and be back over the weekend for you, free subscribers. For members—see you tomorrow.
Mike
Glossary by ChatGPT
Gamma cluster – A concentration of options open interest around specific strike prices that can amplify price movements as hedging flows intensify.
Implied volatility – The market’s expectation of future price fluctuations embedded in options prices.
Positive-gamma environment – A market condition in which options dealers hedge in a way that dampens price swings, often causing them to buy as prices fall and sell as prices rise.
Treasury settlement day – A scheduled day when investors must deliver cash to pay for newly issued U.S. Treasury securities.
VIX 1-day (VIX1D) – A one-day measure of expected S&P 500 volatility derived from options expiring within 24 hours.
Disclosure
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
Subscribe to receive this FREE daily commentary directly in your email
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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