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Equities Advance but Face Headwinds from Technical and Options Forces

April 1, 2026

The free market commentary and YouTube videos will be on a break from today, and will return on Sunday, April 12. The only content published during this period will be in the membership area.

The S&P 500 rose by around 70 bps on the day. The key takeaway is that the index cleared resistance at the 10-day exponential moving average. The negative, however, is that it failed at the 20-day exponential moving average. It’s hard to draw firm conclusions right now, given all the headline-driven moves. For the moment, we have to rely on what the charts—and, more importantly, options positioning—tell us: the market is facing resistance from a technical and options standpoint.

From an options perspective, there appears to be a significant amount of positive gamma built up at 6,600, which should also act as resistance. Additionally, we are no longer in a negative gamma regime, meaning hedging flows should help dampen volatility.

The biggest factor heading into tomorrow is that the market is closed on Friday, while the jobs report is still being released that day. Given ongoing geopolitical developments, there is a strong likelihood that implied volatility will rise on Thursday.

Anyway, this will be the last update until April 12.

-Mike

Glossary by ChatGPT

Exponential Moving Average (EMA): A type of moving average that gives greater weight to recent prices to better reflect current market trends.
Gamma (Options Gamma): A measure of how quickly an option’s delta changes relative to movements in the underlying asset’s price.
Implied Volatility: The market’s forecast of a likely movement in an asset’s price, derived from options pricing.
Negative Gamma Regime: A market condition where dealers’ hedging activity amplifies price movements, increasing volatility.
Positive Gamma: A condition where options dealers’ hedging activity helps stabilize markets by dampening price swings.
Resistance (Technical Analysis): A price level where selling pressure tends to emerge, preventing further upward movement.

Disclosure

This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.