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The S&P 500 finished the day flat despite being up nearly 60 bps with just 30 minutes to go. The decline into the close was a bone-crushing one. More impressive was that it was against a market with a close imbalance of about $2 billion to buy. So, it was a stunning finish to the day, and more importantly, it probably left the Bulls a little bit demoralized after two rough days in a row.
This left the S&P 500 below the 10-day exponential moving average for a second day and broke the rising uptrend. Today also created a doji, and it is not uncommon for a big down day to be followed by a doji, followed by another big down day, as we saw on March 26, 27, and 28.
I know tomorrow is a Friday heading into a three-day weekend, so that complicates the matter, but it would seem that all it takes is for the sellers to actually show up, and the last two days have been good examples of that. Volumes in the futures have been a bit better the past two days, with most of the volume coming later in the day. Again, this goes to the point that all it takes is the seller showing up.
Meanwhile, most signs point to the dollar weakening further, as noted by the USDJPY. The broadening wedge pattern suggests the USDJPY will likely return to 140.
Gold has been sending mixed messages lately, but the only thing that appears consistent is that it is still in an uptrend. At this point, it is right in the middle of the recent trading range. I could just as easily argue for it to go back to the highs at 3,440 as I can for it to test the uptrend again at 3,175.
Anyway, I think that is all for now. Enjoy the long weekend. I will be back on Sunday or Monday with more.
Mike
Terms by ChatGPT
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bps (basis points): A unit of measurement equal to 1/100th of 1%. For example, 60 bps equals 0.60%.
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closing imbalance: Refers to the difference between buy and sell orders at market close. A positive imbalance means more buyers; a negative imbalance means more sellers.
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exponential moving average (EMA): A type of moving average that places greater weight on recent prices, used by traders to gauge market trends.
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rising uptrend: A chart pattern indicating prices have been consistently making higher highs and higher lows, signaling bullish momentum.
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doji: A candlestick pattern with open and close prices almost equal, often indicating indecision or potential reversal in market trends.
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three-day weekend effect: Market dynamics that can occur before a long weekend, typically involving lower trading volumes and potentially higher volatility.
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futures volume: The amount of contracts traded for futures products, indicating market liquidity and sentiment.
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broadening wedge pattern: A technical chart pattern characterized by diverging trend lines, suggesting increasing volatility and uncertainty about future price direction.
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USDJPY: Currency pair representing the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar (USD) and Japanese yen (JPY).
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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