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3/20/22
STOCKS –ARKK,
MACRO – SPY, TLT, 2s, 5s, 10s
PRICES WILL BE RISING TO $65/MONTH OR $520 ON MARCH 31; START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW TO LOCK IN THE LOWER RATES. CURRENT MEMBERS UNAFFECTED!!!
- RTM: Powell The Hawk
- RTM Tactical Update: Expecting A Surge In Volatility
- RTM: The Importance Of The Fed Balance Sheet To Stocks
- RTM: Stock Rally Missing Key Ingredients For Longevity
- RTM: Markets Come To Critical Resistance Region
- RTM: Tracking Options Trades And Delta Hedging [Edu. Content]
Stocks finished flat today, which was unexpected, and followed the recent 4-day rally pattern nicely, which has led to a period of sideways consolidation of about the same length.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The S&P 500 finished flat and was saved by a decent market on close buy imbalance, which helped propel the index higher in the final 10 minutes of trading. But the more important underlying story is that the gap at 4,480 was filled and, for the moment, rejected. That’s important to note.
2s
Today, Powell was the driving force for markets as he reiterated his stance on monetary policy at a Q&A session and indicated that hikes of more than 50 bps were possible. It was also more than evident that inflation comes before economic growth. It sent yields soaring across the curve, more specifically at the front of the curve. The 2-yr rate rose to around 2.12% and is now within striking distance of the 2.2% level we have focused on.
5s & 10s
Additionally, the 10 yr and 5 Year spread is now negative at -0.03%.
20+ Yr Treasury ETF (TLT)
The TLT had a bad day, making it the lowest close since the summer of 2019. At this point, the odds for a drop back to $125 seems like they have increased.
ARKK (ARKK)
Meanwhile, the market was back to selling the ARKK ETF today, which finished down 2.8% on the day. I like to watch the ARKK ETF because it seems to lead the rest of the market, at least in my observation. I have noticed that once the ETF starts to get dumped, it can act as a leading indicator for the rest of the market. In the meantime, it is trading around the downtrend at $63.50.
Anyway, we will see what tomorrow shall bring.
Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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