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1/12/2022
STOCKS – DOCU, ZM, ROKU
MACRO – SPY
- Rtm: The Looming Recession
- RTM Exclusive: Gilead’s Shares May Take A Leg Lower
- RTM: Markets Rebound, But Balance Sheet Run-Off Is Coming
- RTM: Earnings Estimates For The NASDAQ Are Dropping
- RTM Technical Update: Watching The SPX Reversal Pattern
- Live Q&A Session Friday, January 7 @ 12 PM ET
- RTM: A Pause In The Middle Of The Storm
- RTM- The Fed Is Going To Be Much More Aggressive Then The Markets Thought
This is going to be short tonight sorry, will try to expand tomorrow.
It was a super strange day for the market, with the CPI reading coming in at 7% y/y in line while the core was hotter. Yields did nothing on the nominal side, with the 10-year falling to 1.74% and the 2-year rising to 91 bps. It caused the curve to flatten to 83 bps. The 5-yr real yield rose back -1.33% from yesterday’s rate of -1.41%, with breakeven inflation rates dropping to 2.85%. The dollar index also tumbled by 65 bps, while Fed Funds futures were flat across the curve.
The 30-year minus the 5-year is on the verge of a colossal break lower and sitting on support at 55 bps. If that goes, it could be on its way to 40 bps.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The S&P 500 stopped just about where it had to keep the idea of diamond pattern alive and stopping at the downtrend. If so, the index should head lower and revert to the lower uptrend around 4590.
Roku (ROKU)
Roku continues to drop, and there is no reason for it not to drop. The stock failed to recapture the support/resistance area at $193.50. I think the stock is now on its way to $150.
Zoom (ZM)
Zoom is still holding support at $175, but I get the feeling that it won’t last for much longer, with the stock heading to $150.
DocuSign (DOCU)
DocuSign is also resting just above support at $134, and once that goes, there is a good chance it goes all the way to $102.
Have a good one
Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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Mott Capital's Market Chronicles September 12, 2025 2:14 PM