This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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DECEMBER 26, 2019
STOCKS: AAPL, C, NFLX, SNAP, AMZN
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN NFLX, AAPL
Premium Content : Copper And Gold May Be Breaking Out
S&P 500 (SPY)
Stocks continue to march higher with no end in sight. By many indications, the market is getting extraordinarily overbought, and it worries me for what will come once it decides to turn lower.
However, here is a new thought. If we are entering a period like I think we are beginning, which is the eventual rise to around 3,600 on the S&P 500, the path the market is likely to take becomes more linear, and that means pullbacks, and the sharp, and violent moves of the past will dissipate. It means pullbacks will be short-lived and in the 2-3% range, and not in the 8-10% range. It will be something that resembles 2017, with no 10% correction, or perhaps a period like 2012 to 2015.
When looking at the chart, it seems apparent that the S&P 500 has only one thing in mind, and that is to rise to 3,400.
It also means that the number of stock trading above their 50 and 200 day moving averages will remain more elevated as well, where they peak around 88 to 90%. What it means is that the market may still have much further to rise and that a pullback may merely not becoming.
It means that the rally may simply carry into the start of 2020.
Apple is up to $291, and I have no idea what happens now. I love the fact that the stock is going up, but it is not easy figuring out where it goes next. Based on the prior patterns, it would seem that Apple is due to consolidate now around this $291 region, meaning trade sideways.
Citigroup appears to be heading towards $81.
Amazon rose sharply today, and that bullish option betting I saw a few weeks back appears to have been the correct bet. I wrote this on December 9 when the shares were $1750 – Amazon Is Seeing Bullish Betting, Suggesting 7% Increase
Netflix has been consolidating around $336, and now it may be getting ready to make that push to $362.
SNAP also had a good day rising above resistance at $15.50, and now the stock could be on a path to $16.75.
Have a good one, probably nothing in the morning. I’m taking it easy this week, getting ready for 2020.
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.