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August 19, 2021
STOCKS – F, GM, MU
MACRO – SPY, RSP, IWM
Mike’s Reading The Markets (RTM) Premium Content – FREE 2-WEEK TRIAL
- RTM – A Shift In Risk Sentiment Is Approaching
- RTM- Tapering Is Probably Coming Very Soon
- RTM- Next Live Q&A Session 8.20.21 – 1 PM ET
- RTM- Asian Markets Are On Watch For A Bearish Breakdown
- RTM – Will The Fed Taper At The Wrong Time?
- RTM Video – Is This The End Of The Rally?
- RTM – Leverage Financial Conditions Are Getting Tighter
- RTM Tactical Update – Tapering Is Coming, And It May Lead To Equity Market Turbulence
- RTM – 2Q’21 Investor Letter
S&P 500 (SPY)
Stocks finished the day flat based on the S&P 500’s close of up 13 bps. The index goes into options expiration tomorrow down around 1.4% for the week. The index is closing in on the 50-day moving average and whether it comes into play or not is questionable, but that has happened on several occasions going back to November 2020. For the most part, that could be the biggest and important number to watch on the S&P 500. While it is entirely possible that level never even gets tested, that’s where I would focus my attention.
The index failed three times to overtake the 4,420 level today. To see the index rally tomorrow, the S&P 500 will have to gap over that level at the open; I think; otherwise, it struggles.
S&P 500 EW (RSP)
The RSP index was weaker today, falling by 22 bps, and as I said last week, I wasn’t convinced the equal-weighted S&P 500 broke out. It turned out it was right to wait because the ETF is down nearly 2% this week and has fallen below support at $152.50 and the 2020 uptrend. Additionally, the MACD is now turning lower as well.
Russell (IWM)
The Russell is also broken down, falling below its 200 day-moving average for the first time in forever, and fell below the uptrend we had been watching closely. Look, it could easily snap higher tomorrow, but if it doesn’t, the RSI is likely to make a fresh low, and that is the last thing you want to see if you are hoping for a bottom.
Ford (F)
Ford keeps dropping and is now trading below support at $12.75. The next big support area comes at $12.15; that is where a gap is just waiting to be filled.
GM (GM)
GM has the same struggles as Ford, and it seems that the next place for the stock to stop if support at $49 breaks could be around $45.25.
Micron (MU)
Micron’s floodgates are getting close to opening all over again, with a break of support at $70. There would be a huge drop ahead for its shares, probably back to $58.
Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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