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STOCKS – ZM, MA, AMZN, MU
MACRO – SPY, QQQ, IEF
- RTM- Holding 20
- RTM Tactical Update: The Equity Market’s Response To Jackson Hole Seems Naive
- RTM: Market Internals Are Getting Weaker
- RTM Video: Every Market Sees Its But The US Stock Market
- Volatility May Be About To Pick Up
- RTM – The Mother Of All Divergences?
- RTM- Is The Equity Market Simply Wrong?
- RTM Short Term Bearish Idea- Ford Further Downside
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN MA
Stocks finished the day mostly higher, with the S&P 500 up roughly 40 bps. Despite the positive day, the advance/decline line fell and has not confirmed any of the new highs for the S&P 500 since the A/D line peaked at the beginning of July. Regardless the S&P 500 is now trading above its upper Bollinger band, indicating it is over-bought. The pattern has been to reverse and retrace back to the lower Bollinger band, which is around 4,390.
The Qs are overbought based on the Bollinger band and the RSI, based on those two indicators. That would also indicate that the Qs retrace, again potentially to their lower band around $360.
Meanwhile, the NASDAQ Comp. advance-decline line also fell and hasn’t seen a high since the end of June.
The 10-year fell slightly today, but the RSI is still trending higher, indicating yields can climb from here over the very short term.
Zoom (ZM)
Zoom is getting crushed tonight, which is what happens when you give inline revenue guidance and then disappoint on the earnings guidance, and you trade at 70 times 2024 earnings estimates and 18 times sales. As I have said multiple times, the company is not growing fast enough to fit into its valuation. When a growth stock with a high valuation disappoints, it is toast; it will be dead money until the company reports next quarter, just like Amazon. There is no room for error.
The double top pattern should easily get confirmed tomorrow, with support at $280. Yeah, I know all those price targets are around $425; yeah, watch how they start getting cut.
Amazon (AMZN)
Speaking of Amazon, it rallied some 2% today, making it back to its upper Bollinger band, and just a hair below its 50-day moving average. It could fill the gap at 3,600. I don’t see any reason why it should, given the terrible guidance they gave when they reported results a few weeks ago. My guess is we see $3,300 before $3,600.
Mastercard (MA)
It is a little concerning that Mastercard fell below its 200-day moving average and looks like it is really breaking down. I hope it can hold on to support around $350, but it isn’t looking good at this point. If $350 goes, we are probably looking for $325.
Micron (MU)
We can finish with Micron because everyone got excited last and thought the stock was going higher. It was pretty clear it wasn’t going higher because it failed intraday at the 50-day moving average. The momentum is going all the wrong, and I still think the stock sees $58 before it sees $86.
Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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Mott Capital's Market Chronicles September 26, 2025 1:32 PM