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January 16, 2020
Stocks: NFLX, TSLA, TSM, MU, SNAP
Macro: SPY
Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Captial own NFLX and TSLA
S&P 500 (SPY)
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The S&P 500 is rising this morning with the S&P 500 futures pointing to an 11 point gain or roughly 31 basis points. Interestingly, I started to track a rising wedge in the S&P 500 futures, and today for the first time, I found the same pattern in the S&P 500 cash.
Now the time frame is essential because it is an hourly chart, which would suggest just a short-term pullback. But it could be pointing to a pullback of about 1.5 to 2.5%.
I will continue to monitor this closely. This will also be something I will review closely tonight’s streaming event. You Can Join Us By Sign-Up For Your Free 2-Week Trial on Seeking Alpha or StockTwits
Taiwan Semi (TSM)
Taiwan Semi is rising after reporting fourth quarter earnings that came in ahead of estimates, with revenue that was weaker than expected. Based on the slides from the presentation, it would appear that guidance for revenue in the first quarter came in well ahead of estimates at $10.25 billion at the mid-point, versus estimates of $9.75 billion. The stock has a level of resistance around $60.75, but overall the trends remain bullish with the potential to rise to around $64.85.
SNAP (SNAP)
SNAP is trading lower today on reports the CEO sold 2.78 million shares at $18. The stock has stalled out at resistance around $18.40.
Micron (MU)
Mizuho raised its price target on Micron today to $65 from $61. The stock held on to support around $55.60 nicely, with a chance for it to test resistance around $58.66.
Tesla (TSLA)
Tesla was downgraded to underweight at Morgan Stanley while raising its price target to $360 from $250. The stock could fall back to around $472, where it should find a level of support.
Netflix (NFLX)
BMO noted that Netflix might see upside domestic performance and guidance for the fiscal year 2021. Also, Credit Suisse stated it sees a modest 4Q beat. Cowen also sees the company hitting or exceeding subscription guidance. It may not matter, because the stock can’t go beyond $340 anyway. I’m somewhat sarcastic here; I’m frustrated by the price action recently.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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