April 20, 2021
STOCKS – NFLX, ROKU, IBM, BA, XBI
MACRO – SPY
- Midday- Stocks Drop With More Warnings Signs Building
- Understanding And Modeling S&P 500 Earnings Estimates
- RTM Morning Note- Gearing Up For Netflix
- Netflix Earnings Preview- Need To Know Guide
- Midday – Bitcoin Could Hold The Key To Where Stocks Go
- Morning Note: Gamma Levels Drop, Will Stocks Drop With.
- Peak Earnings Growth May Mean Peak Multiple Expansion – T.W.A
- Morning Note- All Signs Point To A Post Opex Hangover
Stocks fell for a second day, with the S&P 500 dropping by 70 bps, nothing too exciting. The only thing established today is some good support around the 4,125, which was anticipated. There is still a gap at 4,080 that needs to be closed, and with Netflix dropping tonight, we could see that get filled tomorrow. I still think we head towards 3,960 over the next few weeks.
Well, I wasn’t sure what kept the XBI from falling below $126.85, and I figured it out. That is where the 200-day moving average rests. The XBI already broke its 50-day moving, and a break of the 200-day would be terrible. I am wondering if the XBI already broke the 200-day, and now it is acting as resistance. It sure looks like it could be. It doesn’t look good overall, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it drop to $114.
Netflix is falling below $500 in the after hour. It missed net adds for the first quarter and guidance for the second quarter. Not a good sign. Clearly, the “re-opening” effects are happening sooner, not to mention they raised prices.
I don’t think I have ever seen them guide a quarter to just 1 million net adds. That means there may even be a risk net adds, turning to net losses in the second quarter, which will likely cross people’s minds, especially after the company missed guidance by around 2 million subscribers in the first quarter.
The price around $490 now becomes resistance with support at $470. The stock has tested $470 many times, and I think these results could put that in play.
Roku is trading lower following the Netflix news, as it should. The next level to watch there is around $300.
Not only did IBM break out today and rise above resistance at $136, it gapped over resistance. Maybe even a breakaway gap. That could be good news and pave the way for a push to $148.
Boeing fell about 4% today. The stock broke below support at $239, making it possible for the stock to fall back to $215.
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