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12/13/21
STOCKS – AAPL, NVDA, AMZN
MACRO – SPY
- The Market Is Waiting For Something To Break
- RTM- The Bond Market Is Dreaming Of A Recession
- RTM- The Market Might Actual Think The Fed Won’t Taper Faster
- RTM: Stocks Stall Below Resistance
- RTM: The Bond Market Warnings Grow Stronger
- RTM Exclusive: Uber’s Stock May Be Ready To Surge
- RTM: Stocks Rally, As Fed Fund Futures Price First Hike In May
- RTM: Global Market Deleveraging Event Is On The Horizon As Market Prepares For Faster Fed Taper
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF. MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL
Markets were weak on December 13, with the S&P 500 dropping by 91 bps and the Qs dropping by 1.44%. Stocks dropped right after the open today and tried to recover late in the session, but a significant sell imbalance of nearly $3 billion sealed the deal for the index, with the S&P dropping by almost 40 bps in the final 15 minutes of the day to close at the session lows.
The intraday chart indicates that this may be the start of a wave three down, and we could see the index drop back to 4,600 and either fill the gap from last Tuesday or come close to it over the next day or at most two. We have also completed on the a bearish megaphone pattern and started what looks to be a five wave impulse lower. I think ultimately we return to the lows established the first week of December around 4,500.
The daily chart of the S&P 500 has that bigger megaphone broaden wedge pattern that appears to suggest we ultimately get a move back to 4,400. Additionally, we can see the trend for the RSI turned lower. With the big PPI print tomorrow, the FOMC on Wedensday, and Quadruple witching on Friday, this week will be much more volatile.
But more important, is that the big megacaps stock are the ones that have been propping this market up over the past couple of weeks, and there are signs that it may be over. If these big stocks start to turn lower, there will nothing left to keep the market afloat.
The number stocks making new highs minus new lows are extremely weak across the entirety of the US markets. Today there were 311 new lows more than new highs, along with a weaken trend.
Apple (AAPL)
Apple had a big day rising to resistance around $182, and then reversing lower to finish down by 2% at $175. The stock is extremely overbought here, with an RSI that is around 70, and now with a broken uptrend, and tons of gap to fill down to $162.
Amazon (AMZN)
Amazon fell sharply today, despite what I thought was a really big positive after Cowen named it a Best Idea for 2022. Very surprising price action. The uptrend is broken along with the weak price action doesn’t bode well for the direction of the stock. I still see 3,200 coming.
Nvidia (NVDA)
Nvidia fell nearly 7% today, and the stock is very close to breaking support at $281 and likely on its way to filling the gap at $230.
That’s all for today.
-Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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