Subscribe to receive this FREE daily commentary directly in your email
STOCKS – AAPL, UNH, AMD
MACRO – SPY, QQQ, DIA,
- RTM- Topping Patterns – Video
- RTM First Look: Adobe’s Shares May Have Significant Downside Risk
- RTM: An Illusion
- RTM: RISK-OFF WARNINGS
- RTM: Volatility Remains Elevated As Volume Disappears
- RTM: Volatility Is Likely To Remain Elevated
- RTM: What Comes Next
- RTM Exclusive: Block, Formerly Square, May Have Further To Fall
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL
A pretty dull day, with most of the action in the final 30 minutes of trading. The S&P 500 finished down 30 bps, while the Qs also finished down by 30 bps. The S&P 500 almost broke support today at 4,780, but not by enough to make me feel comfortable about it. Once 4,780 breaks which I think is highly likely tomorrow we should move back to the 4,740 level and erase Monday’s gain.
Ideally, I’d like to see the index close below 4,740 either tomorrow or early next week. It would be a rejection of the new high and confirmation of all the other patterns I see across the marketplace.
Dow Jones (DIA)
The Dow today made a classic 2B topping pattern with a new closing high, and attempt to take out the old Intraday high and then a close lower and more importantly below the previous all time high. If we get a sharp decline tomorrow I think it will seal the 2b topping pattern and result in the Santa rally vanishing next week, before the Santa rally is officially over.
Nasdaq (QQQ)
The NASDAQ 100 Futures failed to break above 16,560 today and closed just below support at 16,450. The fact that the NASDAQ is failing is critical, and that likely means some follow through lower tomorrow will also set up a sharper decline. The RSI is very negative.
Apple (AAPL)
The same thing still remains true across a number of mega-cap stocks, with Apple still unable to make a new high today, and trading lower. A drop to support at $167 would set up a potential double pattern, and the RSI has now fallen below an uptrend.
United Health (UNH)
More important for the Dow than any other index is United health and that the stock has a giant rising wedge pattern that has formed, and with a giant gap to fill at $403, this needs to be watched very closely.
AMD (AMD)
AMD now appears to be in a downtrend and appears to be on its way to $135. As for the Xilinix the company noted today that it was not going to close until the first quarter. After owning NXPI through the whole QCOM attempted takeover, all I can say is good luck trying to get China to approve the deal. Maybe China will do what it did QCOM, which was never blocking the deal, but to never approve it either.
-Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Subscribe to receive this FREE daily commentary directly in your email
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
CTA And Volatility Funds Poised To Drive Market Pullback
Mott Capital's Market Chronicles October 10, 2025 2:00 PM