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DECEMBER 30, 2019
STOCKS: ROKU, TSLA, AMZN, BABA, SNAP
MACRO: SPY, GLD, YIELDS
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN TSLA
S&P 500 (SPY)
Stocks fell today with the S&P 500 dropping by roughly 55 bps to close at 3,222. The index did make it as low as 3,216, and it also managed to break the uptrend that has been working since December 3. Also, the RSI for the index managed to fall to 68.5 from 78.5. I’d take the RSI falling back to 56, that would please me. It would likely take the S&P 500 back to 3,180 to 3,200 range, and there would be nothing wrong should that happen.
German 10-Year
The German 10-year bund did something it has done since June, that was close at negative 18 bps. It is a big break out for the interest rate, and suggests a further increase to negative 13 bps.
Spreads
It doesn’t sound like much, but this one reason why the dollar is weakening. The spreads between US and German bonds have contracted considerably in 2019, and that is one reason why the dollar likely has even further to fall in the weeks ahead.
Gold (GLD)
That is one reason why I have been getting bullish on the commodity sectors recently. I have been talking about the GLD since last week in my member areas, and the ETF is now very close to breaking out and pushing to $147. I happen to think it will break out. Premium content – Copper And Gold May Be Breaking Out
Roku (ROKU)
It figures that after I write a positive article on Roku, the stock goes down. Sometimes you can’t win. Perhaps ROKU falls back to $122 now. Roku’s Stock May Rise Sharply Short-Term
Alibaba (BABA)
Alibaba fell out of the trading channel today, and now it is testing support at $211. It could result in the stock falling to around $201.
Tesla (TSLA)
Tesla also fell today, and it should not be a surprise, the stock can’t go up in a straight line. It is still overbought, and I think it probably falls back to $390 or so to test the breakout.
Amazon (AMZN)
Amazon probably needs to pull back some more, too, perhaps to $1825.
Snap (SNAP)
I noted in an article for Forbes; I saw some bullish option betting in Snap, which could result in a rally to start 2020. Snap’s Rocketing Stock May Rise Further To Start 2020
The commentary should go back to normal on Thursday, January 2, with the return of both the morning and evening.
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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