Home » Stocks Drop On December 6, 2023, As Growth Concerns Surface

Stocks Drop On December 6, 2023, As Growth Concerns Surface

Subscribe to The Free Market Chronicle and join the 2,750 subscribers getting it for FREE!


#Stocks –

#Macro – $SPX, $DXY, #Rates, #inflation, #China

Mike’s Reading The Markets Macro Subscription Service on Seeking Alpha

Some Recent Titles:

Free YouTube Video


Stocks finished lower as risk-off seemed to be a theme today, with oil prices slumping below $70. Oil has been a harbinger of all things these days, and the best thing that can happen with oil, at least over the next 6 to 12 months, is to do nothing. Rising oil could stoke more inflation while falling oil suggests global growth is a real concern. Oil above $70 and below $90 would be ideal, but unfortunately, that is not happening.

If oil is in a retracement of the rally from the 2020 lows, it could still have more to fall as it completes a wave “C” down; at least, that’s what it looks like. I had been bullish on oil for some time, but after it fell below $83, it seemed like the 70s were a possibility, and now it looks like it could go lower into the $50s.


The other piece is that copper is getting walloped after trying to break out. When copper and oil fall, it tells us that the market is worried about slowing global growth.

5-Year Breakeven

5-Year Inflation Breakevens today fell sharply to a new cycle low, dropping to 2.07%, a level not seen since early 2021. It could be nothing, but this is something to watch because if oil keeps falling, then inflation expectations will keep falling. Falling inflation expectations aren’t just an indication of inflation falling but also a sign of growth slowing.


My guess is that the decline in the China CSI 300 to levels not seen since before the COVID pandemic isn’t helping the matter and could even be driving some of those concerns.


Additionally, we are seeing the dollar index continue to push higher and through that 104 level, which sets up a potential test of resistance at 104.50; after that, the dollar could run to around 105.60.


1-week 50 delta S&P 500 options have seen implied volatility increase significantly over the past few days, rising over 12 from around 8. So quietly, on the surface short-dated, implied volatility has risen. It could merely be due to the jobs report on Friday. It is hard to say, but it has been growing for a few days, and that has been telling me, at least, that the rally in equities was likely to struggle.

S&P 500

In the meantime, I have used this exact wave count for some time, and today, it looks like the diamond reversal pattern formed over the past few days broke lower this afternoon.

Again, as I have noted, the dynamics that took the market higher off the 4,100 level in late October are the same dynamics that could now take the S&P 500 back to 4,100. The rally off the low was due to a short-gamma squeeze, which boosted the index higher and forced systematic funds that were short to cover and then go outright long. Based on my research and readings, those dynamics are in place if the index starts to drift below 4,500.

Since the S&P 500 never passed the July highs, it is quite possible that what we have witnessed from July to October was wave one down, and the rally since October was wave 2, and if this wave three down, then the lows of October low will not only be reached but undercut.


Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.