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11/30/21
Stocks – F, XOM, AAPL
Macro – SPY, QQQ, IEF, FDN
- RTM- Taper Still On And Is Not Going To Sit Well With Stocks
- RTM- Replay Of Live Session
- RTM: Implied Volality Push Higher
- RTM: Financial Conditions Appear To Be Tightening And That’s Bad For Stocks
- RTM: Rates May Now Rise Faster, Sooner
- Tactical Update: It Is Now A Matter Of When The Market Corrects, Not If The Market Correct
- RTM- Risk-Off On OPEX
- RTM Exclusive: Its To Time Buckle-Up
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL
THIS WEEK’S FREE YOUTUBE VIDEO
Stocks fell sharply again today, undercutting Friday’s low by falling roughly 1.9%. The market turned on Powell’s tapering stance, which seemed to favor a faster taper. It was noted on a few occasions on TV about the timing of this stance, especially with the uncertainty around omicron.
The timing was not a mistake; everything Powell says, I’m sure, has been carefully vetted and thought about. He is sending a message to the market that new coronavirus variants will not derail the Fed’s plan to taper. I would take it as far as to say that I think the Fed wants the market to do the heavy lifting for them and wants the market to tighten financial conditions because that may choke off inflation, allowing them a chance to leave rates lower.
It is just a theory, but he will speak again tomorrow, and maybe he will walk it back, but I don’t think he will. I think he will have the same stance. He wants the rates higher and wants the dollar strong; he knows this action will slow inflation.
Yields
The yield curve immediately reflected this with the short-end rising and the back-end falling, flattening again. The 30-Year minus the 3-Month is something to see. It is currently sitting on a significant level of support and has a broadening wedge pattern present. Both suggest that lower levels for this spread are coming, which would indicate further flattening. That spread could quickly drop to 1%.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The S&P 500 can easily fall to 4365, and nobody at the Fed would likely come to save it. After all, the last 10% gain on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ was just pure stupidity, all driven by multiple expansion. The “real” losses only start after we break 4,365.
For now, 4,550 is the next significant level of support, and then 4,490 and 4,450. So there is a lot of room here for things to happen.
Nasdaq (NDX)
It looks like a head and shoulder pattern is forming in the NDX, and once it breaks 15,990, that pattern will be complete, which could mark a significant top.
Technology ETF (FDN)
The FDN fell sharply today, breaking that significant uptrend I noted not long ago. $223 is the next level to look for; it doesn’t speak highly for technology stocks in general. You can also see that triple top, head-and-shoulders pattern present as well.
Exxon (XOM)
Crude oil was slammed again today, and Exxon continues to look very weak here. I still think it fills the gap at $57.50
Apple (AAPL)
Apple was up today on a report out of Digitimes that said that sales of the new iPhones surged in China. I don’t know where Apple should go at this point. At this point, this stock seems like a haven trade more than anything else. I am happy it is up, don’t get me wrong, I have owned it for a long time. But something seems off here.
Ford (F)
Ford is very close to breaking support at $19, which would push the shares back to around $15.55, filling the gap.
-mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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