Subscribe to receive this daily commentary directly in your email
Independent macro and options research, published every trading day — $85/mo or $750/yr
Subscribe →11/29/21
Stocks – NONE
Macro – SPY, QQQ, XBI, HYG, XLU
- RTM: Implied Volality Push Higher
- RTM: Financial Conditions Appear To Be Tightening And That’s Bad For Stocks
- RTM: Rates May Now Rise Faster, Sooner
- Tactical Update: It Is Now A Matter Of When The Market Corrects, Not If The Market Correct
- RTM- Risk-Off On OPEX
- RTM Exclusive: Its To Time Buckle-Up
- RTM Exclusive: PayPal May Rebound Sharply Short-Term
- RTM- The Dollar Is Rip
- RTM Exclusive: Disney May Be Poised For A Big Rebound
- RTM- The Dollar Continues To Soar As Rates Move High
THIS WEEK’S FREE YOUTUBE VIDEO
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v02MErnLPJ8&t=2s
Stocks jumped on November 29 as volatility came down sharply. I noted this was highly likely on Sunday, but the S&P 500 wasn’t able to get up to 4700. Instead, it stalled at 4,675. The VIX jumped too much on Friday, and this snapback was obvious once we didn’t get a significant drop at the open.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The IV crush pushed the S&P 500 higher to 4675, which was a resistance level, and that is where it stopped rising. It was also the 61.8% retracement of what I believe was wave three down; therefore, today’s up move could be the completion of wave 4. Thus, we should start wave five tonight or tomorrow in the futures, resulting in that drop to support I have looked for at 4530. Let’s see what happens first before we think further out.
Navigating The Market · By Michael Kramer Independent macro and options research, published every trading day. Daily written analysis covering gamma exposure, dealer flows, key levels, and the macro drivers moving markets. Includes full video access. Recent Subscriber Analysis
NASDAQ (QQQ)
There is a broadening wedge right now in the Qs, and these broadening wedges have been breaking in the direction of the previous move. The broadening wedge going into October was preceded by a rising trend, which led to a breakout. This wedge was proceeded by a down move and should result in a move down to around $383.
High Yield (HYG)
All the recent gaps in the HYG are now filled, except for the lower one. That corresponds nicely to the predicted moves more down in the SPX and QQQ.
The Market Chronicles · Video Membership The daily market commentary, delivered in video. Same daily market analysis, in video form — available to YouTube channel members only. Latest Videos
Biotech (XBI)
The Biotech ETF (XBI) is close to breaking a significant support level here, $115. It could set up a drop back to $100 over time. It is terrible news for those Russell 2000 fans, too, because many biotech stocks help move the Russell around.
RISK (XLU/XBI)
Meanwhile, the risk appetite in the market may be ready to take a turn for the worse, based on the ultimate risk-on/risk-off gauge. The biotech (XBI)/Utility (XLU) ratio has a giant reverse Head and Shoulder pattern present and is about to break the neckline, up. It would mean the XBI underperforms XLU; it is probably not a good sign of what’s to come anytime that happens.
Anyway, that’s all for today. I do not see anything for individual stocks today.
-Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
Gamma Squeeze Appears To Be Driving Semiconductor Stocks - Advanced Topics
Mott Capital's Market Chronicles 21 hours ago